This is what I am seeing with Bonds for the rest of the year..
1) We had that rotation I spoke about to the high of the monthly DVA and a nice rejection of that area. Now it does appear prices are resuming that move lower.
2) For me to stay bearish prices got to hold under Septembers VAH and clear the first obstacle of the VAL/September Lows (Blue Circle). If this can happen the yearly POC is a good target ( the black line on the daily chart with annual DVAH/Profile).
3) I expect to see some buyers hold the market from trading under that level for too long if the bears can take it there. So basically looking at the Yearly DVA we had a move back into the DVA and a bounce and rejection of prices moving back above value. Im now expecting a rotation down to the POC/DVAL of the year.
4) Looking at how the years Profile is being distributed we can two High Vol Areas near the high and low of the VA range. As long as the Fed stays undecided we will probably rotate and trade between those areas.
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My trading is all done day to day, I don't even have a chart on my screen when trading haha! I've never been very good at meshing my analysis and my trading so I keep my directional market biases longer term, nothing shorter than a week out. This way I can stay flexible and keep my trading in the moment. The analysis is good homework and keeps me in tune with the market.
Right now I'm bearish for the next couple months unless something starts changing or bearish objectives are met, like the ones I mentioned before.
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