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So far this week I'm seeing this POC from most of August of 170'12 as a kind of Over/Under line. Prices have opened this week below it, shot up right over the HVN and traded above and now we've dropped under it rather easily and seem to be holding below. We might test it today but I see it as being unlikely that prices will trade too far above the IB High and will likely stay below Y Low.
That being said looking at it from a higher time frame a rotation low at the Monthly VA/DVA is looking to be developing. So I'm currently finding it difficult to see a directional bias as there is a lot of conflicting information on that regard. This is certainly a trading market. Im just playing the ranges today and looking for the momentum when I see it.
There is an excellent webinar here done by FuturesTrader71 about using statistics to develop and edge, so all credit goes to him. I basically used the same methods only using OHLC data from the RTH, ON, OR, IB, and VAH/L instead. Using Sierra Chart I can export all that onto a spreadsheet and just go from there.
I just wanted to say that I really appreciate the effort being made by the people posting on this thread. I personally only trade ZB but of course follow ZN and ZF. I mainly scalp and cannot really post my trades as it would not be very meaningful. However, I really appreciate the more long-term views expressed in this thread in addition to the statistical analysis referred to above. I will try to contribute when I can and look forward to more people posting on ZB and the other treasuries.
We saw prices trade up to that MCPOC of 170'12 and get rejected to the tick, not even a double test and now we are back at the lows of this monthly range we've been stuck in. There is a lot of momentum to the downside and today we are more likely to close under the IB Low of 169'14 which has only been clearly done once over the past month. If that holds, its a pretty bearish signal and possible a sign this range can finally be broken! *hopefully*
Out of interest lets use some of those statistics to determine the likelihood of today moving higher. Ultimately, there's no real news going on today, I think it'll be slow and we'll likely just see the market trade around these lower levels.
1) ON Low had already traded, only a 23% chance prices will now trade above 169's (ON High)
2) With the IB now in place a +200% move up to 168'18 has a 22% chance of happening.
3) We opened outside yesterdays Value Area, which means we have an 82% likelihood of it also closing outside the VA. and as I mentioned before the chances of that close being above the VAH is low, so we'll likely see prices today mostly trade and close under 168'5
I think its quite likely the High is in place today at 169'0. However its also likely that prices trade up to 168'3 to fill in the RTH gap that was left overnight. Which would be a 150% move or so from the IB high which has a 57%-33% chance of occurring now.
I'm just using these numbers to frame the market, they are not % probability of trades working out.
Very interesting thank you, it looks like the market is trying to curve to the upside but keeps getting rejected, Seems to be a bit sticky in the range we are in, maybe a good day for quick scalps?
so who wants to opine about fridays selloff? Anybody think there will be good buying opportunities on Sunday night session before we start the week off?
