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"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
I say it will go up and down with a lot of volatility that makes it unsuitable for a currency for quite some time.
The altcoins even worse. If you like trading pump and dumps that is the market.
New better altcoins will continue to be created, just like designer drugs.
Might be an interesting speculation to just buy some 1000s of every new altcoin as it emerges on the board. One out of twenty or so of those will go supernova like ETH.
BTC (and other forms of payment like credit cards) are known to benefit by what is called the network effect. This is the idea that once a certain competitor gains enough market share that they have a monopoly. A similar model is the marketplace model, firms like ebay/amazon/etc attempt to become the market place, once they have established themselves as the de facto market place then the volume attracts more volume so to speak so no one can compete with them. If you were to try to innovate, they could copy your innovation faster than it could reach adoption. And, that might be one problem for bitcoin in that it seems to be somewhat static-- if its not adaptable then having market place status might not give it monopoly advantage.
No BTC is not a ponzi scheme because there is no promised or even implied rate of return. A Ponzi scheme is a scheme that guarantees or promises an unrealistic rate of return and uses new investor money to pay prior debts. However, BTC could be in a speculative bubble and is host to a subject of wide ranging and array of poorly understood risks. BTC is not a currency either because currencies are backed by governments. BTC is best thought of as a digital asset, good, or service. Long term valuation will be a function of how useful it is, how much it is perceived to be worth (speculators), and competitive responses. The biggest threat too BTC is the question of adaptability and rigidity. Those betting on BTC are betting that it will obtain synergistic network benefits and monopoly status but the risk is that it can't be respond to market changes because of possible rigid implementation and decentralization.
One way to track the fair value of bitcoin would be to create a metric that ranks the adoption growth for actual purchases/goods versus its increase in value. By plotting the adoption rate versus growth in value rate, you can create some measure of whether or not bitcoin appreciation is warranted. A simpler measure would be to track the trading volume in relation to the asset appreciation. If BTC is appreciating much faster than volume is increasing then that would suggest that it is being hoarded and might suggest overvaluation. Another very useful measure would be the amount that is being exchanged out vs in. These measures could be used to forecast future price.
I use BTC all the time for international money transfers and it works great for that. However, you must get in and out as fast as possible due to volatility.
Vast numbers of poor migrant workers abroad are now using it instead of Western Union for transfer payments.
I think it may also be in use in the appification of money in India going on right now.
