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Beginner's question
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Beginner's question

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Raceman's Avatar
 
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Beginner's question

I have a fundamental question as a beginner getting ready to jump in. Do you believe that individuals can profit long term? If so, what is the basis of that belief, please? I have not traded much, but have spent a number of hours reading through posts mainly on this forum, as I have found it to be the best one so far. I am willing to invest the time to become good trader; IF it can be done successfully. There is much written about trading, and there are many individuals that will take your money to show you how best to do it, but very very little on actual long term success or even method back testing at a detail that is believable or demonstrable..... I have read about the 5%/95% successful / unsuccessful... I understand money management, mental fortitude, and discipline with a trading method are extremely important. I have done a few hours on sim with just basic price action...no other indicators (btw, Big Mike's video on that was excellent...simple, easy to follow). But, long term, day after day...can it be successful (profitable); or at the end of the day it is really gambling with lots and lots of math and programming trying to decipher a random indeterminate problem?

So...would appreciate your thoughts. BTW, just purchased Al Brook's 423 page book on price action (yes, I read the reviews and know it does not read well, but content is rated as excellent).

Thanks in advance for your time,
Raceman

 
  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
 
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Hello, great start with Al Brooks's book. Maybe you should have started with his new book since the first one isn't really meant for beginners.

I wish you great success.

The problem is: It's not because you learn hard, put a lot of effort, time and money in it, that you will become a successful trader. You can, but it's not a guarantee. This is not some kind of a degree you study for, do exams and pass.....unfortunately.

It's a battlefield out there, with a lot of blood and many guys with heavier weapons than you.

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  #4 (permalink)
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Raceman, I am also very new to this game but, the one thing I have learned is that this kind of question will probably solicit 100 different answers from 100 different people. You can sift through the answers to find the one you are looking for

But, really, the only way to answer this question is to try and answer it yourself. Spend some time on sim, open a small account with money you can afford to lose and go for it.

Everyone is different, I wouldn't make a decision whether to pursue trading based on general consensus, you have to base the decision on if you believe that you can succeed.

Best of luck

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  #5 (permalink)
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Practice is the key, and you need a lot of it..........Have you heard about the 10.000 hours theory?
Ok maybe you need less time, but what i'm suggesting you is to to find a trading method that is confortable for you, than practice it on SIM for a lot of time, when you will be able to be consistenly profitable for at least 3 month, u can try to go live.
For the long term question, if u can be profitable for 1 year, why not long term? Ja, there are some factors that could be change and make u not profitable, but when u gain a lot of experience u can adapt yourself and resolve the new issues that come in front of you. I think is just like every other job u start from zero.

Take your Pips, go out and Live.
Luke.
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  #6 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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Raceman View Post
I have a fundamental question as a beginner getting ready to jump in. Do you believe that individuals can profit long term? If so, what is the basis of that belief, please? I have not traded much, but have spent a number of hours reading through posts mainly on this forum, as I have found it to be the best one so far. I am willing to invest the time to become good trader; IF it can be done successfully. There is much written about trading, and there are many individuals that will take your money to show you how best to do it, but very very little on actual long term success or even method back testing at a detail that is believable or demonstrable..... I have read about the 5%/95% successful / unsuccessful... I understand money management, mental fortitude, and discipline with a trading method are extremely important. I have done a few hours on sim with just basic price action...no other indicators (btw, Big Mike's video on that was excellent...simple, easy to follow). But, long term, day after day...can it be successful (profitable); or at the end of the day it is really gambling with lots and lots of math and programming trying to decipher a random indeterminate problem?

So...would appreciate your thoughts. BTW, just purchased Al Brook's 423 page book on price action (yes, I read the reviews and know it does not read well, but content is rated as excellent).

Thanks in advance for your time,
Raceman

Tammys right , you will get 100 different answers and its all about you making it work on your own . Long term trading success - is it possible ? Yes because once you settle into a regime after making a lot of mistakes that are a consequence of learning all the mechanics of the markets and the mechanics of your behavior and your tendencies you will know what needs to be done to be profitable . Its a business and if you look at it that way and act in your best interests always (always) its a function of time before you succeed consistently .

I stress to you to consider your options in regards to trading and explore every trading avenue . There are 1000s of instruments in dozens of markets and 1000s of methods to adopt . Each approach to every market carries its own burdens and the implications on you and your lifestyle can be either heavy and difficult or light and fun , do your homework and trade in a fashion that lets you enjoy it .

I work to live and trading is work so I like swing trading best . To me scalping and intraday trading was living to work and although its enjoyable at times , for me its equally stressful .

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  #7 (permalink)
Sharpening mental edge
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Raceman View Post
I have a fundamental question as a beginner getting ready to jump in. Do you believe that individuals can profit long term? If so, what is the basis of that belief, please? I have not traded much, but have spent a number of hours reading through posts mainly on this forum, as I have found it to be the best one so far. I am willing to invest the time to become good trader; IF it can be done successfully. There is much written about trading, and there are many individuals that will take your money to show you how best to do it, but very very little on actual long term success or even method back testing at a detail that is believable or demonstrable..... I have read about the 5%/95% successful / unsuccessful... I understand money management, mental fortitude, and discipline with a trading method are extremely important. I have done a few hours on sim with just basic price action...no other indicators (btw, Big Mike's video on that was excellent...simple, easy to follow). But, long term, day after day...can it be successful (profitable); or at the end of the day it is really gambling with lots and lots of math and programming trying to decipher a random indeterminate problem?

So...would appreciate your thoughts. BTW, just purchased Al Brook's 423 page book on price action (yes, I read the reviews and know it does not read well, but content is rated as excellent).

Thanks in advance for your time,
Raceman

I think if i had to give any advise to someone in your actually very enviable postition of starting out on what has the potential to be a fantstic journey then it would be as follows.

ignor all advise and general information out there in trading land.
be as contarian as possible.
be as sceptical as possible.
back what you believe in 100% and forget conventional thinking from others that is counter to your ideas.
find one good trading mentor or go and work for a firm and stick to what you are taught.
understand that a chart is peoples perception of price, not what some thing is actually worth. it is a graphical representation of feelings and emotions.

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  #8 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Al Brooks newest book?


MetalTrade View Post
Hello, great start with Al Brooks's book. Maybe you should have started with his new book since the first one isn't really meant for beginners.

I wish you great success.

The problem is: It's not because you learn hard, put a lot of effort, time and money in it, that you will become a successful trader. You can, but it's not a guarantee. This is not some kind of a degree you study for, do exams and pass.....unfortunately.

It's a battlefield out there, with a lot of blood and many guys with heavier weapons than you.

I checked Amazon, did a Google search, and looked on Al Brooks website and I can't seem to find a newer book. He mentions creating a newer edition that is much easier to read. His web site says it will be out next year.

Appreciate a link or other info to direct me to it.

Thanks,
Raceman

 
  #9 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Beginner
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Raceman's Avatar
 
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reply


tammyd549 View Post
Raceman, I am also very new to this game but, the one thing I have learned is that this kind of question will probably solicit 100 different answers from 100 different people. You can sift through the answers to find the one you are looking for

But, really, the only way to answer this question is to try and answer it yourself. Spend some time on sim, open a small account with money you can afford to lose and go for it.

Everyone is different, I wouldn't make a decision whether to pursue trading based on general consensus, you have to base the decision on if you believe that you can succeed.

Best of luck

Thanks for the post. I suspect you are correct about the many different answers. I guess my real question is I can't seem to find any definitive evidence it can be successful. For other occupations one can easily find average salaries, even small for business owners there is data which talks about type of business, income per year, etc. I should have been more explicit with my question...something like "Anyone know of Internet links to or personal experience with long term success specifically with salary, $$/hr average, or the like and the time period e.g. $$/hr year 1, 2, ...10...15?" For example, are there many people that work 2 to 4 hrs a day and earn $50K a year trading?

Raceman

 
  #10 (permalink)
Elite Member
Virginia, usa
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
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Raceman's Avatar
 
Posts: 9 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 12 given, 1 received



LukeGeniol View Post
Practice is the key, and you need a lot of it..........Have you heard about the 10.000 hours theory?
Ok maybe you need less time, but what i'm suggesting you is to to find a trading method that is confortable for you, than practice it on SIM for a lot of time, when you will be able to be consistenly profitable for at least 3 month, u can try to go live.
For the long term question, if u can be profitable for 1 year, why not long term? Ja, there are some factors that could be change and make u not profitable, but when u gain a lot of experience u can adapt yourself and resolve the new issues that come in front of you. I think is just like every other job u start from zero.

Appreciate the reply. I am sensing there is much much more to trading than I have read about so far. Hard to imagine this could take years to perfect. I guess if you try many many trading methods (couple months per each) and then many many instruments, there are very many combinations. With so many traders out there, seems like there would , by now, be a few methods and a few markets that really consistently outshine (more profitable) all the rest...but that is the engineer in me coming out.

Raceman


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