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Your topic came out in my email and while reading and thinking about it , i could provide some insights that may be of use , if it is please do , if not just ignore me.
At this moment you have fallen, you need to take some time off and reflect and get to audit yourself. Mentioned would be you have tried multiple items, and been on the hop.
Could you take account what have you learnt from all the bits you have and which one that works well and you like best?.
Take those and audit what you know. Define strength and your weakness , or topics you like to pursue.
Work on those weakness, get better at it, it will click one day.
You would also need to revisit your basics as you have fallen. You will need to go back to basics like S&D levels and your technicalities. There after you can then go to advance items when you are comfortable and tested what works and not.
Everyone has mentors and mentors all through their trading life along the way, only which mentors can come and go, teaching you what you want to know at that moment. If they are suitable then works with your style then you may learn something.
Got to also highlight a mentor and coach has some differences , they mentor comes in and holds your hand to cross the street, in which you may put in the work by walking the steps. There is no such thing as given on a platter , work must be done, so they may appear once in a while in your time.
A coach on the other end is somewhat of trading coach on your side, giving you that insight at that very day/moment. They may only work with you on the specific trading moment.
There is no wrong as to subscription to a room, as long as you learn until you think you are able to stand and look for something else.
For Forex or futures its is still the same charts, patterns , levels and fundamentals, only some rules and difference in participants which drives behavior of the instrument.
As this you will still need to put in the work and the discipline and form a process with your strategy around what you are comfortable.
Build your plan, build your process, build your trading life and rules. Then back test it, These may not be set in stone and can change as you go along to improve your goals.
And lastly pick yourself up and dust all that dirt mate, you can do it , keep your mindset good, and do the things in the right direction.
Hey cmac! I understand and have gone through your process of frustration. What many traders miss is the importance of psychology and his/her beliefs. It's important to know yourself because you don't trade the markets. You trade your beliefs of the markets. For example, if you like trends, then it's your beliefs that markets trend and offer the best opportunity when trending. Therefore, you'd identify yourself as a trend trader and filter only setups in trend mode. If you were to try a system fading in rangebound markets, you'd have trouble executing the system because it goes against your beliefs.
Whenever, I tell people this, at first his/her ego gets defensive saying that this doesn't apply to them. I went through this process as well. Once you take ego out of the equation and understand what type of trader/person you are, then the more congruent you are with your new system. That leads to flawless execution. Everyone has useful and non-useful beliefs and must dig deep into understanding him/herself.
It's not cheap, but I went through a couple of courses at Van Tharp Institute and it's helped accelerate my learning curve about myself and my trading. I won't promise you anything, but I do know it worked for me. I thought I was a fader in trading, but I didn't like going against the most recent momentum move. I'm more go with the flow. Once I realized this, I looked and tested for trend trading strategies.
Well I have always been to busy with work but spend most of my free time with trading, (Like 8 hours per day before bed). In 2016 I got me a program that do Genetic Evo. Well 2018 the portfolios i made actually made 130 % profit. It was probably some luck involved ( hopefully some experience but probably not). But that stuff actually work and i think it is easier to make it work if you have some experience from trading as well. The program i use has been greatly improved with a new version and 1000 ds of features implemented fiercely requested by users like me so i have high hopes for future performance of more advanced strategies. Right now i am watching some 5 min strategies that are looking at 1 min for entry they have made 10 % last 2 month with almost no draw down which is pretty good. The features are nice i can make strategies on 2 years of data test them on 14 years tick data and then run walk forward on 20 different instruments if i want with different ranking options and all automated. The holy grail is now to find bulk of strategies that have a 100% positive performance on any type of OOS.
Give up. Pretty simple. If you have been watching and not learning anything and are feeling down about it, give up.
Markets take effort. There is no magic bullet and there is no easy way, it takes work and it takes hours.
I do not trade futures or stocks, I trade forex. I trade the daily charts only and I work at it about an hour a day before my day bar close at 8pm est.
I didnt always do this, I tried to play with the big boys in futures and stocks a watched a 50k account go to zero because I didnt know money management all I knew is I wanted to make money.
I didnt know me. I didnt know how I would react when I lost or won, and my emotions were all over the place.
That was 2012 and I found a way to lose 50k when the market did nothing but go up and I was in the dumps and I was ready to give up.
Then I decided I needed to understand how things work and what I mean by that is how things work together, such as indicators on my charts and the things that specifically affect the markets I play. I decided on forex because I am a night owl and it is open all the time, I could get DEMO accounts for free and the news was pretty easy to find such as forex factory.
And I worked at it at least 2 hours everyday, reading dumb articles and trying stupid systems, but through all this I learned something about what is most important, my psychology and money management, the former being much more important but the latter running a very close second.
The systems I tried didnt mean a thing if I didnt have those 2 things, end of story.
But once I had gotten to that point, I opened up a small 1k account, and learned more about myself as far as psychology, but my money management was in place and as I grew even more confident in my system, I made some and lost some, but I didnt blow it up.
Then, along came nononsenseforex on youtube and I now make money pretty consistently, because I got insight there I had never gotten before and it made me find my own system, which has been doing well the last 3 months to a point I am going to makie the next step if it keeps going this way and that prop trading.
Lets see, thats 7 years from blowing an account to finally making money, because I didnt spend time learning what it was that I was attempting to do and how I would handle it when it went south.
I am 55 now, yet I don't feel lost because I built a system that I am confident in and when I put on a trade its over, win or lose, I wont lose enough that I will never trade again and when I win there is no jumping up and down, just able to risk a bit more on my next trade, but stiill never more than 1% of my account.
So thats my suggestion. Give up, or get ready for a long haul, but not nearly as long as mine if you go to the youtube channel I mentioned and learn what you need to learn
Cmac, I didn't read all replies, but this is one of the best things I have read and I agree with it 100%. Know thyself as they say. Once you know what type of trader you are: Trend, Fade, Breakout, momentum, etc. THEN and only THEN you start working on your system or perfecting your system. And the only way you can do that is with screen time and more screen time. NinjaT offers you market replay. USE IT, USE IT, USE IT and take the demo trades. Once you do over 100 trades you will know if your system and your style works.
I was a contrarian and still fade more than what I should, but I have began to balance my trades. If you want to talk more feel free to reach me privately.
Thanks
richard
If you would like help I would gladly help with any trading needs you have as long as they fall within my realm of trading
on a few conditions though
everything must stay public
I won't be giving you any signals
if you end up becoming some what successful you need to return the favor to someone else someday
I will only talk to you from my very short experience. I have started doing trading since 2 years ago. I did start doing crypto in Poloniex. I didn't know what was doing to be honest. I was doing this:
- Buying crypto as soon as I saw the prices going up, green candles.
- Selling after watching the red candles and the prices going down.
I did this for 2 months. I gained money and I lost the double amount I had earn.
For more than 4 months after that I didn't wanted to know about trading. Then I came up with the idea about: "hey let us give a try with the stock market, basically In Options". So I did my research I found this guys called Hyenuk Chu, who is a very experienced investor. He has a youtube channel and also a trading academy. He teaches in Spanish. So I have joined his website($147 per month). They told me some things that I have kept in my mind until today:
1- Every trader needs to develop his own strategy. This is the only way to succeed.
2- Every trader needs hours and hours of observing the market, but most important observe himself.
3- Trading, strategies, methodologies, indicators are not the problem. The real problem is us as traders(basically our beliefs).
So after 2 months there I decided to join another Trading Master called Gustavo Moyano(I wanted to get rich quick and learned a lot in 2 months...Ironic right?). Gustavo has the Shark Strategy. Basically with him I have learned to "try to read the institutional traders intentions". I did this course for 3 months and then I have jumped into real account using Interactive brokers and also working or "trying to" in Stock-Options. I lost around $1000 in total in that time(the course + operating in real account). After that I didn't want to know about trading anymore for 1 more year.
Today, my history is different. The following lines are my experience and they do not represent success for anybody, unless the trader who reads them, work and work very hard.
Right now I have 3 months studying futures. Specifically Mini SP. I have downloaded Ninja Trader and I did this:
1. I have take trading very seriously. This is not my hobby. This is my future.
2. I have made one final trading course for futures trading called "Tradingdefuturos" they teach in Spanish as well and they are located in Spain.
3. I have been working to change my mind, my habits, my thoughts.
4. I carry a trading journal. I do review it every week. I trade every day. There is no excuses for me, because this is what I want to do for the rest of my life and I am the only person who can do it.
I have read:
- Trading in the Zone - by Mark Douglas.
- I have watch: Trading Psychology - by Mark Douglas.
- I have seen a lot of videos about trading psychology, but the most important I have started to believe and to do deep changes within myself and my conduct.
What I have learned so far:
1. The best strategy of trading is the one that you build. You can learn from other but as we are all different we do not process life as the same, so what works for Pedro may not work for Mike. What we can do as traders and learning from others is observation and take the best that suits for each one of us.
2. Discipline is difficult but if you as a trader do not do it, no body will. Eating well, thinking well, change behaviours that will reflect in your trading(because trading is not just what you do for 2 hours a day, it represents what your are and what you think 24/7).
3. Keep a trading journal is important. Also you must write down all your feelings, emotions and reactions while trading, so the next time you can learn from mistakes and move on. Keep improving yourself.
4. Making a trading plan is the key stone of each trader. Review this trading plan, also is so important. And it is very important that you stick to that plan.
5. There is a time when you will desire to learn about: RSI, MACD and many others indicators. Believe me when I say, less is more. If you learn 2 things, indicators, then stick with them until you really understand what is going on. There is a time in life of each trader where they want to become masters of indicators and strategies and they forget one little thing: Master themselves and their trading plan.
And finally there is no way but YOUR WAY friend. You must decide, try, execute, do what you must to feel right. Many traders do exercise before trading to calm their minds and energy. Many trader meditate after and before. So the path it is set by you and only by you. You can find a tutor but please find a good one. Find a tutor who:
- Claim to teach you right.
- Has proofs and is not afraid to trade in front of you with a real account in real time.
- A person who do not say things like "I will teach you how to make $1000 per day".
- A person who tells you "I will teach you how to control yourself, define a trading plan, execute this trading plan perfectly and then, understand your trading and the market".
- And finally a person whom you feel good vibes and good connection.
I wish for you a nice trading journey...The journey that will never ends. Peace out.
PS: after 3 months I have started to see what I was doing wrong. I have defined my strategy, my plan, exits and entries. By doing this I am preparing myself to go funded. Even if this is the last thing I do in life.
Orderflow simply doesnt work. Get that word out of your vocabulary. The same thing can be said about the phrase "Institutional Orderflow", cuz trust me, you will never ever figure out what the "large institutions" are doing.
If you are looking to trade the major indices or currency futures, orderflow is literally the most useless tool you can use. Sure it looks cool, but unless you are a super computer, you wont decipher the "code" fast enough to make sense out of it.
Furthermore, since you are looking to learn about futures: Futures like Indices, Currency, Interest Rates/Bonds are all derivatives of an underlying source. For example, look at the ES.. Its a derivative of the SPX index. What makes the SPX move up and down? -- The collective performance of the 500 stocks that make up the SPX.
Orderflow on a derivative does not foreshadow the future price of the underlying. Orderflow on a derivative doesnt move the market up or down. If you wanted to move the price of the SPX/ES, you would need to buy/short stocks. Just as a ridiculous example: The largest weighted stock in the SPX is MSFT (Microsoft, about 4.13% of the SPX). If I wanted to force a big move in the SPX, then I would need to buy a Sh*t ton of MSFT stock to force a spike to the upside in SPX. If I was to buy a lot of ES futures contracts, it wouldnt move the needle because ES futures contracts do not affect the underlying, aka the stock market.
Index, Currency, Bonds are all derivatives. Orderflow on these markets is just not worth the trouble, its a scam. Im pretty sure those scammers dont even understand that the orderflow on a derivative is meaningless. Its just a recorded ledger of bets placed. If you place a bet on the Golden State Warriors to defeat the Raptors, just because there is a larger pool of bets on GSW, doesnt always mean that GSW is going to win. Just because you see a ton of bets on the long side, doesnt mean that the market will move higher.
On the other hand... Orderflow on actual physical commodities is different. Commodities are non-human/financially engineered products. Commodities are markets like Gold, Soybeans, Sugar, Crude Oil, etc.. These are markets that move up and down based on global SUPPLY AND DEMAND. But even with commodities, global supply and demand is not defined by orderflow, but defined by the amount of necessity or lack of necessity for the commodity.
For example: From Feb 2019 to May 2019, there was a very strong rally in the price of Lean Hogs. Why/How did this happen? Again, commodities are all about supply and demand. The supply of Hogs was disrupted by African swine fever in China. Since you cannot sell or make money off of sick Hogs, you have to kill them off AKA decrease the supply of hogs. When you have less product the demand for the product increases. High Demand = Higher Prices --- High Supply = Lower Prices. That's also how prices at the gas pump are never the same week by week. The supply and demand curve is always shifting and changing.
In Conclusion,
Futures are very high leveraged markets that track the performance of an underlying source. Commodity futures are high leveraged markets that explain the supply and demand curve for that specific product.
The point here is, Futures are no easier than trading Forex or Stocks or Options. Dont fall under that trap. Futures are just a different way of investing and putting money to work. Because it is different, you really need to educate yourself about the futures markets and formulate your own opinion through your own experiences.
The only easy way to put money to work is to buy stocks for the long term.. If the market crashes, GREAT, then keep buying stocks at lower prices and accumulate a larger and larger position and then just wait for things to get better.
If you are looking to day trade, then its very difficult and you have to have a strategy to go on about it. Very difficult to do. No matter what the next guru will tell you..
