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Make sure you have a VERIFIED edge. Psychology is important, so can be understanding the markets and watching them, but way too many people think that is all they need to succeed.
Make sure your trading style has a positive expectancy edge. If you haven't verified your approach with numerous trades over various market regimes (hundreds or thousands of trades, over many years), you probably will fail in the long run.
Here's been my experience:
1. No tested edge, bad psychology: LOSE (most people fall in this group)
2. With tested edge, bad psychology: LOSE (even with proven system, most people can't follow it)
3. No tested edge, good psychology: LOSE (many initial failures at pt 1 end up here, wrongly thinking psychology will bail them out)
4. With tested edge, good psychology: WIN (maybe 1-5% of traders)
By the way, sufficient trading capital can/must be part of your edge, too. Most people start of with too little, and end up losing even with a winning system.
Thank you for taking to time to answer my question. Increasing or having a positive expectancy, having an edge, accepting losses are among things that are recommended strategies. It comes easy to those who have gone through years of experience and found what these really mean.
What is an edge? How to I find that edge? Odds are stacked against us retail traders when professional traders are the ones who have so much more information and edge over us retail traders. Do I have an edge if I follow breakout patterns and back test it? Backtesting is just that, it never guarantees future results. There is no way of measuring the future probability of success of a particular backtest. Technical indicators and TA is helpful as much as looking at a picture from different angles, and is not enough to give you an edge. Most experienced traders tell us that TA is maybe 20% of a setup.
80% is fundamental. These numbers might be a little different.
Odds are against us retail traders also because the way FCMs and Brokerages work. They make money when we trade, on three items. And the system is setup so retail traders lose money. It is hard for me to explain this but I would be interested to see what traders on here think about Anton Kreil's presentation.
I would really appreciate it if you tell me your opinions about this. Is it really this gloomy for us ? here :
what do you mean by screen time ? Is watching the ES ticks during the time a worthwhile screen time ? Do you suggest a paper trade for it to be screen time ?
Practice how ? Is there a systematic curriculum that can be designed with the help of experienced traders ? Most colleges have certain topics to go through in a major. Can that be done in trading? Would that benefit novice traders? For example
Level I
Learn Technical Analysis (how, what books, what authors etc)
Learn fundamental Market Information
Level II
Advanced TA and Fundamentals (books, authors, videos)
Platform training, Sim accounts (which ones)
Level III
Real time training. etc
It seems almost futile to excel in trading if you do not have a mentor. This is no less of an undertaking than a medical school training which is impossible without mentors and teachers. Most traders will not make the learning curve without this help because their resources will be depleted before they can become profitable. Maybe experienced traders can come up with a standardized curriculum, like say PREMEDICAL school curriculum for us to work on and pass the exam first. Like Level I Market Trader ( as in Level I CFP) Level II Market Trader then Level III Futures Basic and so on with what to go through and master in each level with references and topics to master.
I will try and compile a Traders' Curriculum consisting of PDF files based on the suggestions of experienced traders on this thread and make available to novice traders.
An edge is something that produces a long term positive expectancy. I find edges by testing hundreds of ideas/strategies, most of which fail. Breakouts could possibly lead to an edge, in certain markets and certain timeframes.
But, even when you have an edge, that is no guarantee it will continue. That is why I have 80 or so live strategies, each with a little edge. All verified through a rigorous development process. When the edge goes away - as most probably do - then I just shut that strategy down.
Since I sell trading material, I am not going to comment on someone else who does so too. I suggest you perform due diligence, and arrive at a conclusion you believe in.
Hi Kevin, Yes this is the person. Although I did not ask about the quality or legitimacy of this person's materials, your question to me within the link you posted, also answered those with finesse and genius . Thank you for that.
Not so much about what he is selling, but the claims he was making in the video, the link of which I posted ( ) are really worth pondering about.
He claims that the FCMs and IBs are basically built upon the failure of retail traders. He basically paints the industry as a scam built to suck the blood of retail traders; that their success relies on the failure of retail traders; that retail traders do not even know about this scam; that their only goal is to churn our accounts and make us believe that they work for out benefit but in fact they do not; that their educators teach us to trade shorter terms which is the opposite of what professionals are doing.
I did not know you sell training materials. May I ask where I can find them ?
Practice practice practice. You must have a positive expectancy when you are using a demo account, or don't trade at all. I would aim for at least greater than 0.3 to become more profitable in the long-term.
Plan part 1: plan on 6+ months of watching and learning only
Plan part 2: develop a plan and work with it on sim, or paper until it becomes second nature and robotic
Really best to give commodities a full year of watch and learn since there are many cycles in a calendar year.
Just my opinion
A New Dynamic Approach to Attract Newbies, perhaps!
Greetings to all my highly esteemed
professional traders:
I am just thinking out loud and hoping it won't upset Mr. Boulter or
too many owners, vendors, gurus, trading schools and truly consistently
profitable traders et all.
It is very sad that there have been many learning how to trade students complaining, many even shouting, rightly or wrongly, frauds practised
by a handful in the coaching and teaching fields.
I also often wonder, if it is even prudent, if some trading gurus, coaches or educational entities would just tell those students wishing to learn how to become consistently profitable traders that....
OK, TELL YOU ALL WHAT....
I AND MY TEAM MEMBERS KNOW THAT WE ARE GOOD FOR THE MONEY,
AND WE ARE MORE THAN COMPETENT IN HELPING YOU ALL EAGER BEAVERS
TO ALSO BECOME CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE TRADERS IN DUE TIME AND IN DUE COURSE....
YOU ALL CAN COME AND SIT AND WATCH ME AND MY TEAM TRADE LIVE OR SIM, IT DOES NOT
MATTER MUCH AT THIS STAGE, OR YOU CAN EVEN PARTICIPATE IN OUR DECISION MAKING
PR0CESSES IN PICKING AND EXECUTING A POTENTIAL SETUP OR TRADE.
Y'LL DO NOT HAVE TO PAY US ANYTHING FOR NOW.
IT IS GETTING TO KNOW YOU, ME AND US PERIOD.
JUST TRADE ALONG WITH US, CALL BY CALL AND TRADE BY TRADE,
TRYING EVERYTHING OUT FOR PROPER SIZE AND FIT, SO TO SPEAK.
And after a reality trial period, of a week or two or a month or two, whatever
mutually agreed upon,
then and only then, if you are confident and convinced that what we
do and what you see every session is something that you personally are convinced
that whatever we have been demonstrating would help you to become a better and
more consistently profitable trader, then.... paid up.
More importantly, if and when, for whatever reasons, we can not generate positive
income to show you live and up-close; we would be most probably too humiliated and
too ashamed to ask any of you for compensation!
You would think that, right? LOL
There are a few other more potent ideas but
I'll take a break for now to give everyone in trading biz
a breather, while I prepare to take cover in one of the siloes. LOL
Thank you very much for taking time to read and
What do you think? Does the content help you move
a step or two closer toward the directions of becoming a
consistently profitable trader, perhaps?
Whatever you decide to do, keep your wallet under lock.... LOL
EMBEDDED: is a video that has no commercial value of any kind, neither does it
contain any trading instruction for any purpose. Just a fun and game setup
for pleasurable viewing in your idle time at home, alone in your trading office
or such. Watch at your own risks, traders. You are forewarned, K? Thx everyone
for being patient and long suffering. Jemo, you too!
. Thank you for that.