Swing trading through economic data - Beginners and Introductions | futures io social trading
futures io futures trading


Swing trading through economic data
Updated: Views / Replies:637 / 20
Created: by Erinn F Attachments:1

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 1  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Swing trading through economic data

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Indianapolis
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, ZN
 
Posts: 9 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 1 received

Swing trading through economic data

Hi All,

This is my first post on this site. I am a long time lurker and I have gained an enormous amount of valuable information from everyone on this site and consider myself fairly well educated on a broad variety of topics. A big thank you to all who contribute here.

I constantly read about how important it is to be flat during major economic news like FOMC, NFP, CPI, etc. Much of what I have read is in regards to day traders who are using leverage and are flat by the close. For obvious reasons I can understand why someone would need to be flat for these releases as it might be very hard to exit when liquidity disappears as the data is released. What doesn't make sense to me is how a swing trader would handle position management during these times.

If I hold a position for say 1-3 days then there is a good chance I will be holding through those numbers. Yet slippage is still a concern because no one knows far the market can blow one way. For example, if you look at the attachment and took the hypothetical trade you would have done extremely well....the problem is the result is largely due to being positioned before the FOMC minutes. So this approach, even though it may have been a well thought out trade, takes the appearance of gambling on the data.

The big question I have is this - Is swing/position trading essentially a bet on the expectation of the data/news?
Day trading and scalping is easier to answer - you are trading in and out of order flow that is always in the market and not necessarily driven by a high impact announcement. Sorry if this was long winded. I have pondered this for a while and figured maybe someone here would have some input.

Thank you all

Attached Thumbnails
Swing trading through economic data-4.11.2017.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Jerusalem Israel
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Broker/Data: https://bettertrader.co
Favorite Futures: ES, Crude CL, Gold GC, Currency Futures
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 2 received

Analysis of economic events (NFP, FED, Speech)


Hello,

We have a system to analyze the reaction of the markets around economic events and I would be happy to help you with that if we can.

Please let me know which event you are interesting and which instrument (ES, CL, etc), and what exactly you looking for.

I will do my best to do the research and if will find interesting results - will share them here.

Thanks,
Eyal

Reply With Quote
 
  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
Indianapolis
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, ZN
 
Posts: 9 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 1 received

It isn't the reaction to any particular event that I am interested in. I just wanted to get a better idea of how swing traders manage their positions as there are always events of one kind or another that can cause these gap like moves.

It seems like one could easily be positioned based on some form of analysis whether it be TA or market profile and if the timing is right, an event takes place capturing a large profit or loss.

At what point do we say that is part of the trade vs. that is pure gambling?

Reply With Quote
 
  #5 (permalink)
Market Wizard
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,497 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 5,175 given, 3,581 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Erinn F View Post
Hi All,

This is my first post on this site. I am a long time lurker and I have gained an enormous amount of valuable information from everyone on this site and consider myself fairly well educated on a broad variety of topics. A big thank you to all who contribute here.

I constantly read about how important it is to be flat during major economic news like FOMC, NFP, CPI, etc. Much of what I have read is in regards to day traders who are using leverage and are flat by the close. For obvious reasons I can understand why someone would need to be flat for these releases as it might be very hard to exit when liquidity disappears as the data is released. What doesn't make sense to me is how a swing trader would handle position management during these times.

If I hold a position for say 1-3 days then there is a good chance I will be holding through those numbers. Yet slippage is still a concern because no one knows far the market can blow one way. For example, if you look at the attachment and took the hypothetical trade you would have done extremely well....the problem is the result is largely due to being positioned before the FOMC minutes. So this approach, even though it may have been a well thought out trade, takes the appearance of gambling on the data.

The big question I have is this - Is swing/position trading essentially a bet on the expectation of the data/news?
Day trading and scalping is easier to answer - you are trading in and out of order flow that is always in the market and not necessarily driven by a high impact announcement. Sorry if this was long winded. I have pondered this for a while and figured maybe someone here would have some input.

Thank you all

Hi Erinn


Put it simply, if you are a trader holding for more than 1 day (let's say 2- 4 days) that would suggest that you're looking to capture (with one single trade) more ticks than what the average daily range is.

My take is that the impact most economic data releases could have on your trade is (relatively) negligible in that case.

A basic example: taking into account historical CL data (discarding how CL is behaving as of late), the ADR for that instrument can be roughly 100+ ticks. By opening a position over 3 days you'd be looking to make about 300 ticks in terms of range. Weekly CL data releases can affect the price in the range 20-50 ticks, so they would represent a fraction of the total range over a larger period.

Of course the above is an oversimplification. There are factors to consider when trading over a multiple-day period, such as how medium-term macroeconomics may play out and affect your instrument being traded. If you're getting short because you think there's going to be an oversupply of crude oil and then a combination of factors (e.g. data release, OPEC announcement, etc.) influences the trend, that may invalidate your original thesis.

I have seen experienced traders say - for instance - that if they have a trade open the same day and a data release is approaching they may decide to close it or to keep it depending on how many ticks they are in profit. For example, if you are in profit by X amount and you think the average data release affects the market by Y, you may decide that the Y is a good risk/reward ratio for you to stay in the trade. Or to close it if the risk is not warranted.

Clearly certain data releases carry more weight than others - a combination of the data release general importance with the figures being released that specific day may impact the volatility and the general trend so that the trade's profits could be enhanced or diminished.


But - as a broader statement - I'd say that the longer your time horizon, the more negligible these data releases are. If you're day trading then you may want to steer clear of opening a trade near any data release that may affect your product (unless you know how to play them). If you're swing trading on the other hand, there's a bit more leeway.

Analysing larger time-frame periods as well as matching how data releases affected a certain market should help also.


I hope it makes sense?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to xplorer for this post:
 
  #6 (permalink)
Market Wizard
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,497 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 5,175 given, 3,581 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


BetterTrader View Post
Hello,

We have a system to analyze the reaction of the markets around economic events and I would be happy to help you with that if we can.

Please let me know which event you are interesting and which instrument (ES, CL, etc), and what exactly you looking for.

I will do my best to do the research and if will find interesting results - will share them here.

Thanks,
Eyal

Hi BetterTrader - you may want to identify yourselves as vendors by getting in touch with the forum's admins. There are policies in place for how vendors are regulated.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to xplorer for this post:
 
  #7 (permalink)
Market Wizard
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,497 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 5,175 given, 3,581 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Erinn F View Post
I constantly read about how important it is to be flat during major economic news like FOMC, NFP, CPI, etc. Much of what I have read is in regards to day traders who are using leverage and are flat by the close. For obvious reasons I can understand why someone would need to be flat for these releases as it might be very hard to exit when liquidity disappears as the data is released. What doesn't make sense to me is how a swing trader would handle position management during these times.

Just a point about liquidity: assuming we're talking popular futures products (and also assuming this is a retail-level conversation), it's never 'hard to exit' any trade per se, even during a data release.

But because of liquidity drying up, you may find sharp market movements, which of course may go either way. So you would still be able to exit but a considerably different prices than you would otherwise normally expect.

Reply With Quote
 
  #8 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Jerusalem Israel
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Broker/Data: https://bettertrader.co
Favorite Futures: ES, Crude CL, Gold GC, Currency Futures
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 2 received

Hi xplorer,

I am a real person, Eyal Mor. Nice to e-meet you. Yes I work on analysis company, like other people here that have a job. I didn't advertise or suggest to use our product. I tried to help this guy that ask about volatility and economic events. I do have experience and access to data and analysis because where I am working, I believe that it's not hurt the forum, this forum could benefits from this too.

Reply With Quote
 
  #9 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Jerusalem Israel
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Broker/Data: https://bettertrader.co
Favorite Futures: ES, Crude CL, Gold GC, Currency Futures
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 2 received

Regarding the original question, swing traders usually trade wider stop/profit than the volatility of economic events.

Of course that if my stop/exit point in the ES, 0.25% from that target before Janet Yellen speech, better to close your possession before in order not to miss your stop.

It's really depends which event and which markets do you trade.

Same with CL, NG.

Hope that it's help

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to BetterTrader for this post:
 
  #10 (permalink)
Market Wizard
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,497 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 5,175 given, 3,581 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



BetterTrader View Post
Hi xplorer,

I am a real person, Eyal Mor. Nice to e-meet you. Yes I work on analysis company, like other people here that have a job. I didn't advertise or suggest to use our product. I tried to help this guy that ask about volatility and economic events. I do have experience and access to data and analysis because where I am working, I believe that it's not hurt the forum, this forum could benefits from this too.

Hi Eyal, thanks and nice to meet you too

Just to clarify: I am not implying anything, just pointing out that this forum has fairly strict rules about people being affiliated with any vendor


Quoting 
If you are affiliated with a vendor or are selling anything then you must notify us before making any post so that your account is clearly flagged as a vendor


Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > Swing trading through economic data

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

July Journal Challenge w/$1100 in prizes from TopstepTrader

July

John @ No BS Day Trading (TBA)

Elite only

An Afternoon with FIO member Softsoap (being rescheduled)

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Economic Data (feed) - historical and current economic data, GDP, unemployment dimkdimk Reviews of Brokers and Data Feeds 5 April 26th, 2016 08:48 AM
Whether Investors Sell or Stay, Economic Data Key in May Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 April 30th, 2012 11:50 PM
US Economic Data Reporting Now Officially A Farce: Every Economic Data Point Prints 4 Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 30th, 2011 10:30 AM
Switzerland's Important Economic Data Release On Monday Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 5th, 2011 05:50 PM
Week Ahead: The Meat and Potatoes of Economic Data Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 13th, 2010 03:10 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:18 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-06-23 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.81.154.223