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Why does Support and Resistance doesn't work


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Why does Support and Resistance doesn't work

  #41 (permalink)
nb10071981
Daytona beach Florida
 
Posts: 84 since Jun 2017
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It's sort of like the present situation in corn. The charts made a consolidation breakout about two weeks ago. But there are probably some fundamental situations going on in the corn fields pointing towards a large harvest this fall. Because as you can see the breakout turned into A fake out. And has continued down through the prior consolidation range.

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  #42 (permalink)
nb10071981
Daytona beach Florida
 
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It's kind of like the more I start to know about something pertaining to markets. The more I realize I know nothing at all. What came first the chicken or the egg?

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  #43 (permalink)
drm7
Virginia
 
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JamesPowell View Post

[snip]

(not sure if this is acceptable but if anyone interested in the charting service I can send a link. New traders can get them free and subscribe to them later on, or not)

Please DM me the link. I don't have enough posts to DM you directly.

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  #44 (permalink)
nb10071981
Daytona beach Florida
 
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Iamdom View Post
It's not just support or resistance but basically whatever it is that you decide to use as a strategy will seem to work and then not work. understanding why this is so and what to do about this natural phenomenon is the key. Here goes and I'm not playing with words, words are the play. You can' have nothing without something or something without nothing. The truth of nothing and something is that they become each other. A becoming Is a becoming of a becoming. Understand the paradox which is the result. Even if your right you may be wrong. Remember that when you remember you can only remember if you never really forgot. if you really forgot it would be impossible to remember. What goes up must come down but it must go up again because what comes down must go up. So how can you pick direction? It can be done in a limited sense but It is not necessary and you don't need to know how. The key is not to try to pick direction because the picking of direction is what creates direction so it is quite literally impossible to predict direction the way you are trying to predict direction. There is quite literally nothing there to predict as nothing has actually happening which can lend itself to prediction, there is no linear process capable of being predicted. Yet following a simple system which will work if followed is near impossible to do, at least for most. In fact, they will not even be capable of realizing that it will work. But Why? I'll tell you why? Because they are not trying to make money but are trying to stroke the ego. Your using trading to make yourself feel good about yourself and it's an addiction a bad addiction which will not be easy to break. You have to separate your emotions and sense of self worth from trading or it will be impossible to do the right thing. It won't be easy to change if you are suffering from this. I know this personally. Funny how trading seems to attract such individuals. So what to do...and I am talking to myself here.

Remember this...... you were attracted to trading in the first place not to try to make money but to prove something to yourself. You must turn this on it's head. Now use trading as an opportunity to grow and let go of the ego. Don't ever forget this. Your main goal in trading is not to make money but to grow as an individual and free yourself from your limiting ego. the moment you forget and focus more on the money you will stumble. Make it your goal to feel good when you do the right thing even more so than when you made money. Feeling good has to be connected with acting correctly not glorifying your ego by winning or proving that you were right. Effort always has to be directed in this right direction and constant self reflection will be required. The method you will use will to make money in the markets is not important and will appear to you without effort when you are emotionally in the right place. if you still think it's important the ego is still in the way. Try to feel good because it just feels good to feel good? Let your curse be your blessing. All the best.



This is the primary reason I turn off my PnL when in a trade. I try to focus on making my trading decisions based on what the market is telling me. Not what my PnL is reading.

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  #45 (permalink)
tradeshark
Boulder, co/USA
 
Posts: 5 since Jun 2017
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For the instruments I trade I personally believe in and use pivots. I feel pivots are more of a value when the algos are "mostly" in control. Meaning MM's can only do so much to control a volatile and heavy volume market. But when they are able to gain control symbols like CL do show controlled movements that can sometimes be forecasted using certain pivots. Price will gravitate to these levels like a magnet, sometimes consolidate and continue , sometime reverse depending on how much volume comes in.

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  #46 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
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I've started to look at levels including support and resistance a little differently. I used to say "ok here's a level, and this is an area that I predict buyers may start stepping in". So I'd wait for us to reach that level, and judge how the market reacts to it. Based on this I would make a determination as to whether or not it would break out or reverse.

However, I found that when I did this I was right maybe 35% of the time. If I got good swings off them I did pretty good because I was risking 2 and making 8-16. However, if you don't get those big swings, or your percentage decreases then the drawdowns become too big.

So I tried doing the opposite. I don't try to predict which prices will hold. Instead I have edges which predict which prices will touch. For instance, we've opened outside of the previous day's range. What is the probability that we will trade back to the previous day's point of control?

So now I don't look at things as "support and resistance" but rather interest Prices that people are interested in playing, and act like magnets. Sometimes a support or resistance line is an interest area. When we push through it that area is no longer an area of interest and we push further or reverse until we find one. Sometimes they are high volume nodes. Sometimes you can only see it by watching the DOM. The key is they are areas that people are interested in playing both ways. I take positions in areas of low interest, and return them to areas of high interest. That's where I know I can get filled, and I exit my position.

So in the case of support/resistance I take a position on it testing the level, and get out right before it touches it. I don't care if the level holds or not.

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  #47 (permalink)
nb10071981
Daytona beach Florida
 
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TWDsje View Post
I've started to look at levels including support and resistance a little differently. I used to say "ok here's a level, and this is an area that I predict buyers may start stepping in". So I'd wait for us to reach that level, and judge how the market reacts to it. Based on this I would make a determination as to whether or not it would break out or reverse.



However, I found that when I did this I was right maybe 35% of the time. If I got good swings off them I did pretty good because I was risking 2 and making 8-16. However, if you don't get those big swings, or your percentage decreases then the drawdowns become too big.



So I tried doing the opposite. I don't try to predict which prices will hold. Instead I have edges which predict which prices will touch. For instance, we've opened outside of the previous day's range. What is the probability that we will trade back to the previous day's point of control?



So now I don't look at things as "support and resistance" but rather interest Prices that people are interested in playing, and act like magnets. Sometimes a support or resistance line is an interest area. When we push through it that area is no longer an area of interest and we push further or reverse until we find one. Sometimes they are high volume nodes. Sometimes you can only see it by watching the DOM. The key is they are areas that people are interested in playing both ways. I take positions in areas of low interest, and return them to areas of high interest. That's where I know I can get filled, and I exit my position.



So in the case of support/resistance I take a position on it testing the level, and get out right before it touches it. I don't care if the level holds or not.



That was a good analysis on how price tends to treat areas of acceptance like a magnet, and move from areas of rejection towards acceptance. Or in today's price action on the ES-through an area of rejection towards the next lower area of price acceptance.

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  #48 (permalink)
 drmc 
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  #49 (permalink)
MichaelFlowTrader
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I don't really use charts so it's not an area where I actually pay a lot of attention to. More importantly support and resistance are great areas where the game is played by bigger players. It's a great way to unload and accumulate product . Big traders are rarely loading up playing support and resistance the same way that retail players do. They tend to accumulate at different areas and they also tend to liquidate at other areas as well.

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  #50 (permalink)
 
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 AnvilRob 
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MichaelFlowTrader View Post
I don't really use charts so it's not an area where I actually pay a lot of attention to. More importantly support and resistance are great areas where the game is played by bigger players. It's a great way to unload and accumulate product . Big traders are rarely loading up playing support and resistance the same way that retail players do. They tend to accumulate at different areas and they also tend to liquidate at other areas as well.

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Once had communications with an institutional trader. They would not consider a trade till price reached monthly levels to do exactly like you stated in your comment. I think you summed it up perfectly.

A good support and resistance level is an area you should expect a reaction. "My view point" It will either hold or break. But know that many traders are sitting on their hands till those levels are reached. That is why I believe they work.

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