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First month trading- Review my output #s please
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First month trading- Review my output #s please

  #21 (permalink)
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
Absolutely worthless if you are not trading live. Sim results do not equate (or even rhyme) with live results.

Trade live, even if its with a $100 forex account, to actually experience the full gamut of trading pressures and challenges.

These "performance numbers" are taking football video game stats and thinking you can play in the NFL.

The best thing you can do is to immediately open a live account and get to figuring it out.



Anagami View Post
Absolutely horrible advice. You will blow several accounts if you follow this.

I do understand that sim isn't the same as live but I do want to be profitable in sim before I even attempt to be profitable live. I know there's a big debate on whether sim is good or bad and the good side of the argument persuaded more than the bad. I know the numbers won't be the same, but I want to get to numbers that are 'good enough' to go to live with.

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  #22 (permalink)
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farmer55 View Post
Can't believe I'm replying to this post. How does anyone even make over 300 trades in 1 month? I guarantee disaster if you ever go live. But your broker will love ya for about 10 days. You clearly do not have an edge. Do not ever waste real money until you know without a shadow of a doubt that you have an edge. Contrast this--- I have a 2 trade set goal, when reached, stop for the day. Mon, 2 trades, 17 min, done. Tues, 2 trades 21 min done. Today, tough day, 8 trades, almost 4 hrs, done. This is what making money trading looks like.

I apologize as I didn't word my original post correctly. It's one month of real time but about 3-4 months of trades. It's more like 4-5 trades per day.

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  #23 (permalink)
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SoftSoap View Post
I'm a bit disappointed with my first month performance, and I wanted to post some of my numbers to get feedback on what is good and what is bad. This will help me know what I should focus on to improve over this next month.

Keep in mind that this is 1 month of real time, but it is about 3-4 months of market time.

Here are my numbers

ROI%: 9.11%
Win %: 38%
Payoff ratio: 1.93
Expectancy: 9.76
# of trades: 336
Avg R: 0.28%
Max Risk: 1%
Avg Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.72
Max DD: -11.4%
Avg DD: -3.96%

For those curious, I'm trading the NQ and currently on sim (~3 months of data).

Let me introduce you to the probability of ruin matrix

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The probability of ruin matrix is a calculation based on several pieces of data. First, it assumes 100 events; in this case that would be 100 trades. Next, it defines ruin as 50% drawdown from starting equity. Last, it assumes that the methodology used to initiate each event is always the same in every event; in other words each trade done during the 100 trades in the sample set is executed for exactly the same reason.

According to this matrix, if you do 100 trades, and have 42% winners and pull two dollars out for every dollar you give back, your probability of ruin is a little less than 14%. If you calculate the numbers yourself you will find that (42 x 2) - (58 x 1) actually yields a profit of $26, but the ruin matrix is using the full scope of probability theory. That includes the possibility that all the losing trades will come in the first 50% before the sample set of 100 trades is complete.

Notice that a high percentage of winning trades is not an indication that you will make money net in your account. Someone who has 55% winning trades to losing trades has a worse risk of ruin if he wins about the same amount as he loses every time. It actually has a better probability for your account if you have fewer winning trades but hold those winners for a higher profit/loss ratio. Of course, the best of all worlds is to be in the far right side of the matrix. A trader with 60% or more winning trades and only a slightly better profit/loss ratio than 1:1 has no chance of ruin.

You have a lot to learn and a long, long way to go. I'll see what turn this thread takes as I have a feeling you won't be around for very long. And I mean that in the nicest most sincere way possible!

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  #24 (permalink)
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JonnyBoy View Post
Let me introduce you to the probability of ruin matrix

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


The probability of ruin matrix is a calculation based on several pieces of data. First, it assumes 100 events; in this case that would be 100 trades. Next, it defines ruin as 50% drawdown from starting equity. Last, it assumes that the methodology used to initiate each event is always the same in every event; in other words each trade done during the 100 trades in the sample set is executed for exactly the same reason.

According to this matrix, if you do 100 trades, and have 42% winners and pull two dollars out for every dollar you give back, your probability of ruin is a little less than 14%. If you calculate the numbers yourself you will find that (42 x 2) - (58 x 1) actually yields a profit of $26, but the ruin matrix is using the full scope of probability theory. That includes the possibility that all the losing trades will come in the first 50% before the sample set of 100 trades is complete.

Notice that a high percentage of winning trades is not an indication that you will make money net in your account. Someone who has 55% winning trades to losing trades has a worse risk of ruin if he wins about the same amount as he loses every time. It actually has a better probability for your account if you have fewer winning trades but hold those winners for a higher profit/loss ratio. Of course, the best of all worlds is to be in the far right side of the matrix. A trader with 60% or more winning trades and only a slightly better profit/loss ratio than 1:1 has no chance of ruin.

You have a lot to learn and a long, long way to go. I'll see what turn this thread takes as I have a feeling you won't be around for very long. And I mean that in the nicest most sincere way possible!

Thanks a lot for this post, I was familiar with the expectancy model but not so much with the probability of ruin matrix. Seems like expectancy model is more for traders with consistent numbers month over month, while this is more applicable to new traders such as myself who want to ensure they survive the roughest patch of day trading. One thing to add to the equation is that mathematical models only take into account the numbers, and not the person.

I have a main takeaway from your post, assuming that my initial goal is capital preservation and not profit optimization.
38% win is too low, even with this profit/loss ratio, I should be aiming for at least a 45% win and a 2-1 ratio before switching over to live. This gives me a minimum target to strive for, so I appreciate that.

A 5% chance of ruin in ~a month seems more than reasonable to me (I do about 110ish trades per month atm). Especially once you add in the human factors that the model cannot account for.

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  #25 (permalink)
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SoftSoap View Post
One thing to add to the equation is that mathematical models only take into account the numbers, and not the person.

I don't understand. What does the person have to do with it?

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  #26 (permalink)
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JonnyBoy View Post
I don't understand. What does the person have to do with it?

A person brings emotions and risk management, a model doesn't account for that.

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  #27 (permalink)
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Plus you have to be physically there to see and enter the trade. I miss maybe 20% of my opportunities for one reason or another. Sometimes as a trader you also switch off a little (tired, sick, no interest) and this is when you step back for a while and miss trades.

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  #28 (permalink)
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bbgg91 View Post
Plus you have to be physically there to see and enter the trade. I miss maybe 20% of my opportunities for one reason or another. Sometimes as a trader you also switch off a little (tired, sick, no interest) and this is when you step back for a while and miss trades.


SoftSoap View Post
A person brings emotions and risk management, a model doesn't account for that.

That is exactly the response I was expecting. I think you missed the point here.

Anyway, good luck with your trading.

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  #29 (permalink)
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SoftSoap View Post
A person brings emotions and risk management, a model doesn't account for that.

Perhaps you have defeated the point of posting your trade statistics.

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  #30 (permalink)
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stefan777 View Post
Perhaps you have defeated the point of posting your trade statistics.

Haha I think you are right, got a bit derailed from my own question I guess

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