That makes a lot of sense. I've heard a lot about the psychological change so I've tried to mitigate that as much as possible but I haven't given much thought to the 'waiting' part.
I'm under the impression that I shouldn't move away from sim until I'm consistently profitable in sim, and with 38% wins, I feel I'm not close to that yet. I like the fact that with sim I am learning very fast without having to wait, but I know the world isn't like that.
I was initially planning to do about 3-4 weeks of 'live sim' so I can experience the waiting part, but not until I'm profitable in sim. Do you think that rushing that will outweigh the benefit of being able to do 1-2 weeks in one day?
It's something I'll have to give a lot more thought into, than I previously had. I like the fact that I can get ~2 weeks of learnings in one day during sim. Do you think it would be too much if I traded a demo account with live data at the same time as sim on previous data?
and I don't mean that I want to be in a trade all the time, as a matter of fact I'm trying to hold myself back from always wanting to be in a trade because I think that is damaging me more. I think a system like that would be very hard to make profitable.
For me, and it always sounds so cliche, but the real learning curve started when real money was on the line.
I actually went back a step from futures to miniFX, even though I had been trading ok, just to settle myself into better trading patterns where I could hold for the day and add/remove from a core position. The trick for me was no longer being too concerned about the loss, which miniFX allow me to do. I'm not sure if you have miniFX Equities available to you in Canada? I know the US doesn't allow CFD style products.
Not being concerned about losses only comes from having some trust in your edge or trading method. There is lots of good information about breaking your stats down into information to assess your edge, but here are a couple I would look at from a physiological perspective, rather than as a performance number;
Total draw down; is this amount something you would be able to stomach with real cash?
# Lossing days in a row; would this number cause you to panic in real life and change your approach or system (which possibly negates your edge)
The following user says Thank You to amoeba for this post:
This is great advice and I love the suggestion of assessing information from a psychological standpoint . I like those 2 metrics that you mentioned. Any others that you suggest or any references that I could look into more around the same topic?
Then the results are fantastic. 10% in a month is perfect and nothing to be disappointed with. In fact, if this disappoints you, then you have to bring your goals down to earth a bit.
The gotcha is in how much risk you too. There's option strategies that regularly return 10% a month and do that month after month. Trouble is you need to have your entire account on the line to do that and so on a bad month you wipe out your account.
Obviously that's not what you are doing because of your trade frequency but your max DD was 11% - what would be interesting would be to see how wild the swings were in the month. Do you have a P&L chart?
Anyway - 10% is a good month IMO.
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Can't believe I'm replying to this post. How does anyone even make over 300 trades in 1 month? I guarantee disaster if you ever go live. But your broker will love ya for about 10 days. You clearly do not have an edge. Do not ever waste real money until you know without a shadow of a doubt that you have an edge. Contrast this--- I have a 2 trade set goal, when reached, stop for the day. Mon, 2 trades, 17 min, done. Tues, 2 trades 21 min done. Today, tough day, 8 trades, almost 4 hrs, done. This is what making money trading looks like.
I should re-word my original post. It's 1 month of real time, but about 3-4 months worth of data. So it's more of a 2.5-3% monthly ROI. Here's a P&L chart to show some of the swings. The account is quite small as it's my worst case scenario (15K), but I'm hoping that it'll be closer to the 25K mark by the time I start trading.
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