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How to become a successful futures trader
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How to become a successful futures trader

  #11 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Richmond Virginia, USA
 
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rleplae View Post
The difference between SIM and real, is that most (99%) of the persons, act completely different, when it is about real money. you can be 'cool' and relaxed and disciplined with a SIM account. Switching to a real account is not comparable for a big number of reasons :
- technical / latency / fills / etc
- psychology, greed, fear, emotions (that can make you violate your own rules and do stupid things

If you have those type of emotions to begin with, then you are at a huge disadvantage, and will likely not overcome those roadblocks. People are stubborn, and refuse to unlearn. Especially with some shitty book or trading "education" they spent money on. You can't fill a glass that's already full. Psychology ruins half of the traders I've talked to, or have gotten to know through Facebook groups, forums, etc. They care more about what Mark Douglas or some other "guru" says than their own mind. A billionaire can write a set of instructions on how to become rich. 90% won't even take the time to read it more than once. And 90% of those 10% that do, won't follow the steps because of greed, fear, emotions, etc.

Thankfully, I never think about the money. There is a psychological difference between trading with fake money vs real. But if you take the time to trade seriously and develop a sound plan while trading on sim, then switching to live won't be as difficult. The only psychological roadblock I had trading live was sizing up, but I solved that issue by refusing to look at PnL or anything related to currency. To me, everything is a point or a tick. Whether I'm trading 1 contract or 10, It's always 4 points up today, 2 point stop, 3 point target, etc. I think this mind trick is why a majority of the successful traders I meet trade the FX markets. It's pips, never money to them. 10 pips here, 50 pips there, etc. Keeping numbers small helps IMO. But the fear of risk and loss affects everybody IMO. You can't 100% erase those emotions from your mind, even if you have a mechanical system.

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  #12 (permalink)
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Serif View Post
70% winning rate or higher is a big illusion!

And completely meaningless. One thing you learn as a real trader is to discard anyone and anything that only mentions a win rate. 50%, 70%, 90%, all completely meaningless if what you care about is making money.

What is important is the rest of the equation, which is wrapped up nicely if you look at expectancy.

Mike

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  #13 (permalink)
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By mentioning more than 70% winning rate, I meant someone who really knows how the market moves and can predict the price movement almost accurate. For swing trading (win to risk ratio of 3-4), even 40-50% wining rate is acceptable but whatever trading rooms/traders I have seen are claiming 100$ per day as target or they close the position after 2 pts movement (scalping). Why you should sit 8 hr in front of computer for max 100$ a day using the standard indicators which are not always reliable. Even they are not consistent with this small target. They may win 500$ this week but lose 700$ next week!! It's gambling! I've seen traders with 85-90% winning rate but do not teach others. I am looking for such a trader as mentor in fact.





Big Mike View Post
And completely meaningless. One thing you learn as a real trader is to discard anyone and anything that only mentions a win rate. 50%, 70%, 90%, all completely meaningless if what you care about is making money.

What is important is the rest of the equation, which is wrapped up nicely if you look at expectancy.

Mike


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  #14 (permalink)
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behnod View Post
By mentioning more than 70% winning rate, I meant someone who really knows how the market moves and can predict the price movement almost accurate. For swing trading (win to risk ratio of 3-4), even 40-50% wining rate is acceptable but whatever trading rooms/traders I have seen are claiming 100$ per day as target or they close the position after 2 pts movement (scalping). Why you should sit 8 hr in front of computer for max 100$ a day using the standard indicators which are not always reliable. Even they are not consistent with this small target. They may win 500$ this week but lose 700$ next week!! It's gambling! I've seen traders with 85-90% winning rate but do not teach others. I am looking for such a trader as mentor in fact.

I think the point that Big Mike was making is that win rate alone doesn't tell you anything. If a trader wins takes 100 trades, and wins 90% of the time, making average of 1 pt each winning trade, but loses 15 pts each losing trade, the trader will be down a lot of money. That's why you need to look at expectancy.

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  #15 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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When we say X% winning rate, that means for a specific and constant win/lose ratio in all trades. For instance, if I am risking 2 ES pts for a 5 pts target, my winning trades should have 5 pts or more. Managing the trade and closing it at breakeven or few ticks positive before pullback is not called winner.


Elijah View Post
I think the point that Big Mike was making is that win rate alone doesn't tell you anything. If a trader wins takes 100 trades, and wins 90% of the time, making average of 1 pt each winning trade, but loses 15 pts each losing trade, the trader will be down a lot of money. That's why you need to look at expectancy.


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  #16 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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behnod View Post
I've seen traders with 85-90% winning rate but do not teach others. I am looking for such a trader as mentor in fact.

Oh, my.

Short answer: you won't find one. Not a room, not a mentor, not a guru, not anyone.

Longer answer: assuming someone were really very, very good, why would they find it worth their while to show others how to do it for a fee, no matter what the fee they charged, instead of just trading on their own?

The reality is that no one is going to do something for nothing. If whatever he/she can make running some kind of room or otherwise selling their advice is actually enough to motivate them, it's because they aren't making more than that by actually trading -- which means, they aren't the super-trader you are looking for.

I'm afraid you're on a search for something that doesn't exist. You may find some who claim to be, but discovering that they are not will just be a part of your market education.

It's understandable to want to find such a jewel. But trading, in real life, is difficult and trading futures can be very costly. Looking for a mentor is not a good way to solve that. But if you decide to stop the search, that would be a good first step.

Then, you could browse around this forum and see what, if anything, makes sense to you and start the long process of discovering and putting together what works for you....

Happy hunting, and good luck.

Bob.

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  #17 (permalink)
Elite Member
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behnod View Post
Hi Folks,
I am new in trading and lost too much money so far and getting disappointed Could you please guide me how I can be a consistent winner? What should I do? What strategies/methods do really work? Is there any good and reliable trading room which calls trade (futures) with more than 70% winning rate? I tried few rooms and almost all of them were loser or at least break even. Any advise would be appreciated.

Have you looked at the free teaching given by FT71:
FuturesTrader71 | Simplicity in Trading

Each day he conducts a short session (about 20 min.) to form two hypothesis. If i remember correctly his first hypothesis has a good score (+70%). It's not a calling service but for understanding context and price action it's tough to beat considering it's free.

Stage 5 - Trader Bite

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  #18 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Have you looked at the free teaching given by FT71:
FuturesTrader71 | Simplicity in Trading

Each day he conducts a short session (about 20 min.) to form two hypothesis. If i remember correctly his first hypothesis has a good score (+70%). It's not a calling service but for understanding context and price action it's tough to beat considering it's free.

Stage 5 - Trader Bite

This is reasonable, and is not looking for a mentor, just some good information presented by a good trader, and a coherent point of view -- there is a big difference. He's got other stuff out there, I believe, and it's very worthwhile. It's just one trader's viewpoint, of course, but it's worth looking into.

There is also a ton of webinars on this forum, including several by FT71 that may be helpful. I don't recall if they require an Elite membership or not, but it's worth the small fee in any case, because of the many Elite-only posts. Your choice on that, of course.

Bob.

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  #19 (permalink)
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behnod View Post
By mentioning more than 70% winning rate, I meant someone who really knows how the market moves and can predict the price movement almost accurate. For swing trading (win to risk ratio of 3-4), even 40-50% wining rate is acceptable but whatever trading rooms/traders I have seen are claiming 100$ per day as target or they close the position after 2 pts movement (scalping). Why you should sit 8 hr in front of computer for max 100$ a day using the standard indicators which are not always reliable. Even they are not consistent with this small target. They may win 500$ this week but lose 700$ next week!! It's gambling! I've seen traders with 85-90% winning rate but do not teach others. I am looking for such a trader as mentor in fact.

Unicorns don't exist!

There is better advice on here than anything you can pay for but you need to recognize when you are receiving it. Just an fyi- your position will move around +/- $100 every minute if you are trading properly and I'm not talking about trading huge size- don't buy into that stuff. I really believe you need to look at what "trading" really is from a different perspective before you will find any clarity. I'm just shooting you straight- not trying to come off harsh.

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  #20 (permalink)
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behnod View Post
I've seen traders with 85-90% winning rate but do not teach others. I am looking for such a trader as mentor in fact.

In that case, "be careful what you wish for!"

Personally, I'd run a mile from anyone with an 85-90% win-rate offering mentoring services, because I'd expect mentoring services (rather than trading) to be his primary source of income.

Win-rate doesn't matter. Expectancy matters: you need reliably to win more, collectively, from your winning trades than you lose, collectively, from your losing trades.

Methods that can (for a while) produce win-rates of 90% are typically unsound and will eventually crash and burn.

Introductory trading textbooks (like Van Tharp's Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom) explain in more detail why it's generally easier and better and safer to make decent profits from methods with win-rates below 50% than above 50%. I don't suggest that you can't do very well with a method that happens to have a win-rate around 60% or so, but if you're looking to learn from someone with a win-rate of 90%, you're really focusing on the wrong parameter, there.

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