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What I wish I would have known when I got started.
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What I wish I would have known when I got started.

  #61 (permalink)
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rintin2x's Avatar
 
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I wish I would have known it sooner....never in my family have been in financial industry or taken any interest in it, we always believe on typical boring work 8-5. Would have moved to Chicago or somewhere to try my luck and learn the craft back then....my life


Last edited by rintin2x; January 3rd, 2018 at 08:40 PM.
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  #62 (permalink)
Learning to use The Force
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Agree, I would have gotten started much earlier in life (I said the same thing about starting my business at age 30.) I feel somewhat behind the 8 ball as it is, starting so late with so much to learn. But I'm eager and as committed as I can be.

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  #63 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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musickbc View Post
It helps tremendously. Thank you for the response. So, if I am understanding it correctly, risk can be quantified while uncertainty cannot. Risk should be taken into account for every trader when making a decision, but uncertainty will require experience to get a "feel" for, and thereby incorporate into trading decisions. Does that sound close?

On a similar note, any guidance on understanding risk(s) associated with trading? For me personally, the idea of risk is somewhere between a known unknown and an unknown unknown, and is definitely something I endeavor to improve. So, a more targeted question would be "Are there any books, courses, videos, threads, etc. that you, or anyone else, could recommend?" I will be searching on this forum for any discussions around risk and how to find and quantify it, but I appreciate any guidance.

BC

I think you got the concept right, although it would take you years as a beginner trader to learn to quantify risk.

Also, when you use the word "feel" I am a bit uncomfortable. This is because as a beginner, you have no "feel".
As much you would like to rely on intuition, this MAY or MAY NOT come as a reliable tool even after you have experienced many cycles in the marketplace. In general, I do not like "intuition", "gut feel" and other psychological triggers when I have data. if I don't enough data, I have to rely upon intuition.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
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  #64 (permalink)
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mattz View Post
it would be calculated risk, and that is precisely why it has a substantially higher asymmetric reward.

i re-read what you said.

Yes you hit the nail on the head. I meant calculated risk as even with the best analytics... just about anything can happen in the markets. But when Data is crystal....a true trader with analytics puts on a trade which has totally asymmetrical returns....& perhaps more so...if these are swings. Scalps may have their own nuances.

lol....i did not mean "Taking decisions with uncertainty"<< that perhaps may not be classified as trading.

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  #65 (permalink)
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Matt Z has a pretty good grasp on it. I know when I started I came from Aviation into the trading world. In Aviation everything is successful a huge percentage of the time. In trading not so much. I was probably under the impression that I could make profits in the markets as consistently as I could fly to Los Angeles while keeping risk miniscule.

I eventually learned a few things. One is to get comfortable with a higher level of calculated risk than you will find in other industries. The other is that it is not enough to have a system that works. You must believe that your system works at a deep deep level to overcome uncertainty. You can not have a bad day and go looking for some magic indicator that will fix the problem. You have to be able to have a bad day and come back tommorow and do the same trades again.

I think this is a big reason that learning to trade takes so long. This kind of confidence in your system can only be aquired with time and experience.

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  #66 (permalink)
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Traderjohnsblog View Post
... You must believe that your system works at a deep deep level to overcome uncertainty. You can not have a bad day and go looking for some magic indicator that will fix the problem. You have to be able to have a bad day and come back tommorow and do the same trades again.

I think this is a big reason that learning to trade takes so long. This kind of confidence in your system can only be aquired with time and experience.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

as a master trader used to say "You Gotta Believe"(in your indicator(s))

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  #67 (permalink)
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The same applies if your an indicator guy. You have to have invested the time to really really believe that your strategy works. Otherwise there is uncertainty and doubt.

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  #68 (permalink)
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Have a long term view of the markets. Intraday trading is tough if not impossible.

Less is more. Trade less and focus more on a few positions. I think most of us have probably not beat the overall market this year. My index funds have done better than my trading accounts.

Take a long term fundamental view of the market and base your positions around that view

Do not believe that someone is out to get you or your trading against other “professional traders” that is simply not the case and doesn’t move the market, Especially with equity and equity options

Do not believe someone that takes ridiculous over-leveraged future option positions (one main thread on here, sorry but it is the truth). There is only one outcome to trading like that.. busto.

For most trading will not bring fulfillment, have a job you love and you feel makes a difference.

Volatility is good for the market and trading.

Preservation of capital is the most important concept for those who want to stay in the trading game for the long haul. - Van Tharp

Last edited by blb014; January 4th, 2018 at 01:07 PM.
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  #69 (permalink)
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mattz View Post
I think you got the concept right, although it would take you years as a beginner trader to learn to quantify risk.

Also, when you use the word "feel" I am a bit uncomfortable. This is because as a beginner, you have no "feel".
As much you would like to rely on intuition, this MAY or MAY NOT come as a reliable tool even after you have experienced many cycles in the marketplace. In general, I do not like "intuition", "gut feel" and other psychological triggers when I have data. if I don't enough data, I have to rely upon intuition.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Couldn't agree more. As a beginner I know that my ability to quantify risk is low. I was pretty amazed at the level of discussion and resources on this forum when I started searching risk yesterday. Lots of good threads with lots of valuable insight and recommendations for further study. I think I am going to look into Mamis' The Nature of Risk. For me, understanding the risks associated with trading and strengthening my ability to quantify and account for them is one of my top focus areas.

As for intuition, my "intuition" is not reliable, and at this point any sort of intuition or gut feeling on my part is simply a guess. I do not possess enough experience yet to have intuition. However, I do believe that my intuition will strengthen over time as my experience grows, and will one day become an asset rather than a liability.

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  #70 (permalink)
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musickbc View Post
Couldn't agree more. As a beginner I know that my ability to quantify risk is low. I was pretty amazed at the level of discussion and resources on this forum when I started searching risk yesterday. Lots of good threads with lots of valuable insight and recommendations for further study. I think I am going to look into Mamis' The Nature of Risk. For me, understanding the risks associated with trading and strengthening my ability to quantify and account for them is one of my top focus areas.

As for intuition, my "intuition" is not reliable, and at this point any sort of intuition or gut feeling on my part is simply a guess. I do not possess enough experience yet to have intuition. However, I do believe that my intuition will strengthen over time as my experience grows, and will one day become an asset rather than a liability.

You are an open-minded person with a good attitude and open to the concept that it is a hard game. As a starting point, you are in a good place in my opinion. I wish you well in your growth as a trader.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
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