Hello to everyone.
My name is Saiphan and I'm 32 yeas old.
I am just a beginner, doing research on the subject of trading.
I came across many things, which begging some questions, if you don't mind.
Is there a list of brokers rated by users?
- because I saw many things, heard many opinions, and it's quite hard making a decision that is very crucial, when
- there are not a few complaints of investors saying, they had some really bad experiences with those big name companies
like: E*trader, Ameritrade and so on.
I heard some good things on optionXpress brokerage. Does anybody have any experoence with them and can state some pros and cons of trading with them?
What are the best tools given by brokerage or are available, that you could advice on using?
Just new to futures.io (formerly BMT) after it was recommended by another trader.
I imagine my story is very similar to others - I had screaming success at the outset as a discretionary trader many years ago only to lose it all after getting over confident. The last three years I have looked to total mechanical trading with lots of analysis using Wealth-Lab. I have recently been looking to Ninja Trader to implement the process and especially as Wealth-Lab can't be used, at least in Australia, to trade.
I have recently been reading Kevin Davey's book which highlights the reasons why back tests might not necessarily reflect true outcome and how to get around this. I like his approach although I am unconvinced that walk forward optimisation is the best way to achieve stable returns.
Anyway, I consider myself to be in the early stages of my fully mechanical approach and have a passion that will never be thwarted! I just love the problem.
As regards backtesting and forwardtesting, you may be interested in a post I just made elsewhere which touches on this subject. Or maybe not. But here it is anyway.
Put one way, backtesting is the process of determining what might work out, or what seems to work out. It can't be much more than that because the charts are static. Forwardtesting is the process of determining what does work out, if one is using replay. Simtrading is primarily a confirmation. However, not everyone forwardtests "live" charts, and if the charts used are static, or if replay charts were accelerated, the simtrading results can be quite different. Some people push on anyway to RT trading with unexpected consequences, then complain about how useless simtrading is. You, on the other hand, are in the position of knowing exactly what questions to answer and exactly what to look for. (There are also those who let the computer do the backtesting, and of course the results of RT trading are wildly different, so instead of doing the testing over again manually, they decide that backtesting is useless and start trading RT with real money instead, figuring they'll work it all out by doing it, which to a large extent is where trolls come from.)
This came up yesterday after you posted your results and it provides a perfect example of what trading by price is all about (as opposed to focusing on software programs or indicators or patterns or various exotic-sounding displays, which is why I don't become involved in most threads, such as the current one on trading breakouts: we're looking at very different things).
After the bell rang, there was no opportunity to enter, unless I just jumped in with a stop far wider than my risk tolerance and then hoped for the best. So I waited until we hit the upper extreme so that I could catch the ride down. Price then topped, broke the DL, and fell to an extent that suggested a reversal rather than a continuation. So I waited for the retracement. This coincided with a shorter bar (the shorter the bar, the more likely traders are approaching equilibrium). So I prepared to enter a short.
However, price dropped so fast, I couldn't even transmit the order, which went past my trigger instantly. Rather than chase it, I was prepared to let it go and wait for the next opportunity. But price instead had some sort of spastic reaction to all this and shot up to the retracement high. BUT. It didn't make a higher high. This suggested that traders were going to try again (the only other option was to go sideways). Now I had time to place the order, which was then triggered, in the same bar, all in less than a minute. After the RET was confirmed, price waffled around for four minutes, then plunged (that green marker is the first scale-out). And if it hadn't, so what? I'm out a point.
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I'll grant that it takes a while to reach this sort of understanding, but the longer one focuses on bars and lines rather than what traders are doing, the longer it will take, if one ever reaches it at all (most would be so disappointed by missing the first short op here that they'd just slump and give up and direct their attention elsewhere, missing the second short op entirely).
Is this mechanical? Yes. Or at least it can be as mechanical as one wants it to be IF one knows exactly what he's looking at and exactly what he's looking for. If these conditions are met, he needn't even think about what to do.
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That means that your risk tolerance changes when the retracement is confirmed?
I'm a long time follower of your approach but always had problems to find a way to limit losses and put together the "thorougly tested trading plan". It was always something missing so that during my backtests I had the feeling travelling from dead end to dead end...
Also in terms of the context... One has SLA and then one puts AMT over it to elevate win loss ratio...basically?
Well, I wouldn't say that it changes. But when a trade is confirmed, I no longer have to concern myself with risk. The focus turns to management. Today is a perfect example once the short at 96 was in the clear.
As to backtests, I can't give generic counsel. If you want to open up a journal and get to it, I'll be happy to offer whatever guidance I can. Otherwise, I suggest you look at what Gozilla is doing.
As to the SLA and AMT. the latter provides the extremes and, in that context, targets. One can trade AMT without using the SLA at all, though naturally I don't recommend it. The structure that AMT provides is too amorphous. Unless you don't care about the money. The SLA is based on law. AMT is a theory.
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