How Useful is Knowledge of Key Reversal Times?

NexusFi · 2014-07-04T01:42:36-04:00

. From what Turveyd has written, my guess is to find my own intervals and to use them to figure out when would be a wise time to take profits (or at least partial profits) or when to enter a trade. My biggest problem here would be that as an inexperienced trader, I find it hard to differentiate a pullback from signs of an actual reversal. Would either of you have any tips as to what I could do? ? There is a tool I use for that above issue, found it to work very well, basically go with the direction cause …

Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated July 4, 2014

How Useful is Knowledge of Key Reversal Times?

July 4th, 2014, 01:42 AM

#11 (permalink)

aquarian1

Point Roberts, WA, USA

Elite Member

Experience: Advanced

Platform: IB and free NT

Broker: IB

Trading: ES

Posts: 4,034 since Dec 2010

Thanks Given: 1,509

Thanks Received: 2,593

You might ask well if the instrument is at all time highs where is a resistance level?

Under these conditions (as it was for the ES in the chart I posted) the best you can do is use either:
1. a percentage of the last move
or
2. a swing average.
or
3. a vibrational number (this is a bit off-the wall so I won't go into this here.)

1. the last swing low in the es was 1922.75. It had fallen 32pts to there.
You add percentages of 32pts to the 1922.75 for your estimate of resistance levels
e.g

==>Notice how close the 150% is (1970.75 versus 1971.75)!!

2. Last 3 upswings of more than 30pts in the ES
41.75, 44.00, 95.75
average = 60.50
1922.75+60.50=1983

So in this case the swing average estimate (1983) doesn't apply as it is too far away from 1971.75 for 1 July 2014.

(However it could well be a good estimate for the upcoming top with the ES now at high of 1978.25, I'm also watching 1998)

I hope it helps!