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Account been approved! Going to have my first day of tradingthis week LA
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Account been approved! Going to have my first day of tradingthis week LA

  #61 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Toronto
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra
Broker/Data: MB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 313 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 182 given, 58 received

Wish more people on BMT were this mature


TrendTraderBH View Post
The "I told you so responses" to this thread are imho not constructive to helping a (potentially) struggling trader.

Understanding, compassion, and an honest desire to help are much more inviting and productive.

Sir, your mature attitude is definitely appreciated on this forum, I am certain with such an attitude you will be immensely successful in your trading endeavours.

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  #62 (permalink)
Elite Member
Singapore
 
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budfox View Post
lets make this interesting......I want everyone on here to guess what amount it is now, since you guys are so familiar with my trading skills...

@budfox, what is your trading amount now? You had experience in trading stocks so you aren't a newbie in trading. My guess is that you managed to at least double the amount at that time of post.. am I right?

Btw, do spare a thought for those who gave "I told you so responses". These traders meant well and they don't want you lose your money, as trading futures is very tough. One day, when you re-read those posts, I believe you'll appreciate them as I have. Please keep an open mind.. (I'm also reminding myself of my own advice..)

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  #63 (permalink)
Elite Member
desert CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: CL,YM
 
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Cloudy View Post
Suggestions:

Start with $5k account.
Trade in mini-futures like M6E or Forex at .01 or .02 lots, or small shares (200 or so) on the SPX.
If 40% drawdown (around -2k), then quit live trading for 3 months, research and regroup before coming back. & maybe
change broker.
Once 50% gain, then ok to add more to account. so at 7500, 10k, etc. One big lucky trade doesn't count.
If continuing profitably until $12k reached, then ok to trade 1 full futures contract instrument. At least $20k for 2 contracts. Some stick to $30 or $40k before going to 2.

Then after above it's like the steps to trading:
https://futures.io/traders-hideout/1454-38-steps-trading.html

Good luck.

Adding to the above, if one finds it "boring" or "too slow" to trade the micros or minis , and have larger access to trading funds and want to risk more, then the same can be applied to a larger account. i.e. start with $12500 on 1 ES contract.

Then if account dwindles to $6250 then off of trading for 3 months to research and regroup before trying with $12500 again.

When $12500 account reaches $18750 , can add more to account but not to exceed $25000, still on 1 ES contract
If $18750 account dwindles to $9375 then off trading 3 months, research and regroup, then start over at $12500.
On reaching $25000, can add more to account but not to exceed $31250, still trading on 1 ES contract
If $25000 account dwindles to $12500, then off trading 3 months, research and regroup, then start over at $12500.

On reaching $31250, one has passed the "live trials", and can start trading on 2 ES contracts, then every 10k to 20k afterwards , can add one more ES contract. Then up to the trader when to take trading breaks, vacations, money management, etc.


Last edited by Cloudy; August 29th, 2013 at 12:32 AM.
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  #64 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Boca Raton
 
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Cloudy View Post
Adding to the above, if one finds it "boring" or "too slow" to trade the micros or minis , and have larger access to trading funds and want to risk more, then the same can be applied to a larger account. i.e. start with $12500 on 1 ES contract.

Then if account dwindles to $6250 then off of trading for 3 months to research and regroup before trying with $12500 again.

When $12500 account reaches $18750 , can add more to account but not to exceed $25000, still on 1 ES contract
If $18750 account dwindles to $9375 then off trading 3 months, research and regroup, then start over at $12500.
On reaching $25000, can add more to account but not to exceed $31250, still trading on 1 ES contract
If $25000 account dwindles to $12500, then off trading 3 months, research and regroup, then start over at $12500.

On reaching $31250, one has passed the "live trials", and can start trading on 2 ES contracts, then every 10k to 20k afterwards , can add one more ES contract. Then up to the trader when to take trading breaks, vacations, money management, etc.

No idea where you get these #'s from, and to me they seem random at best.
These numbers are based on what method? this should apply to all universally?

The ONLY time to go back to demo is when your model breaks.
If you did your back testing and giving back 1K,3K or 5K is part of the back tested results will mean you have stopped your program at a time when you POTENTIALLY could have recovered from the drawdown based on your method. Changing your method because of a loss and going back to sim just because of a loss creates nothing but a vicious cycle of repeating live/sim that will not allow any growth as a trader..and your capital.

Take a look at CTAs, fund managers, hedge funds, and see what month to month drawdown they have. Sometimes, they erase a whole year of performance in 4 months. Never the less, in the long run, many do come out ahead with a positive expectancy without any stopping.

PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
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  #65 (permalink)
Elite Member
desert CA
 
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mattz View Post
No idea where you get these #'s from, and to me they seem random at best.
These numbers are based on what method? this should apply to all universally?

The ONLY time to go back to demo is when your model breaks.
If you did your back testing and giving back 1K,3K or 5K is part of the back tested results will mean you have stopped your program at a time when you POTENTIALLY could have recovered from the drawdown based on your method. Changing your method because of a loss and going back to sim just because of a loss creates nothing but a vicious cycle of repeating live/sim that will not allow any growth as a trader..and your capital.

Take a look at CTAs, fund managers, hedge funds, and see what month to month drawdown they have. Sometimes, they erase a whole year of performance in 4 months. Never the less, in the long run, many do come out ahead with a positive expectancy without any stopping.

This starting out live "live training trials" was suggested by a pro trader/mentor I came across. It's primarily for those brand new to trading live. Helping to start out psychologically, getting used to, and to work out the kinks of newly trading live as well as preserving capital for a decent stretch of time on a first live trial. Maybe they have traded sim for a while and think they have got a good system so then want to start trying live. For example , the OP of this thread should not have been trading one full lot on $2.5k starting. At best half of a micro lot if possible like on a forex instrument. Or better at $5k starting with 1micro-lot.

( I realized I wrote 1 mini-lot on the ES in my prior post in this thread. I should have said 1 micro-lot or a some form of mid contract, or a roughly equivalently scaled fractional micro lot on ForEx, definitely not 1 ES contract at starting $5k. Then for $12.5k starting, just starting with 1 ES contract. )

It's based on the first post suggestion of $5k at 1micro-lot. extrapolated to 12.5k starting capital at 1 regular ES lot. The single day drawdown limit is supposed to be reasonable like 1% to 5%, or 1 to 3% preferably. So at most, 30 tick drawdown in a day max if going by 3% of $12.5k starting at 1 contract. Then 17 days of losing 30 ticks straight would hit the halfway point limit of $6250 would be the minimum time before dropping off live trading for 3 months and examining one's trading strategy and mistakes and/or trying out other ideas on sim. This affords a new live trader ample live trading trial time and gaining experience trading live.

Once a new live trader has reached the main goal of the trials, then one doesn't have to have to abide by the beginning trial management I outlined any longer. This is just a suggestion for those new to trading live, or have drastically changed their trading methods and want to start out small.

I can't really say on backtesting as I've only tried backtesting on automated strategies which never worked out for me.


Last edited by Cloudy; August 29th, 2013 at 05:17 AM.
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  #66 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
london
 
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FWIW:

A consistent day trader should be making money 70% of days minimum. Otherwise you dont really have an edge. Dont lie to yourself and sit there taking hit after hit after day, telling yourself the big one will come in. Thats a trend following attitude - not a day trading attitude. A day trader goes home flat every day - having made some money - otherwise why go to work?

If you start with 10, and end up with 5, then alarm bells should be ringing at 7. You dont wait to 5 to accept you dont know what the f you are doing.

Sorry, but I dont think comparisons to hedge funds are appropriate to day traders either. Their strategies arent day trading as a retail day trader or local approaches the market. They tend to be HFT or longer term positions. Besides, as they are regulated, they have to be a lot more risk adverse than an individual can be. Remember most HF's dont make it past 4 years, and many cant beat the index. No thanks. They just milk clients in huge fees (not returns) and award it to themselves - thus the allure (and mystery as they dont want folk to know the truth). They are more like an expensive broker.

If it's not working out as it should/did in the past then either a/ the 'model' is no longer working, or b/ your not executing correctly. If a/ is the reason as it often is, then the whole thing needs to be rethought. If the 'model' is based on some pattern that is static, then you are doomed. If your idea of trading is finding some static pattern that gives an edge you are doomed. Do you really think day trading would be that easy? Theres too much money to be made for that idea to exist wiyhout competition. The model needs to be dynamic in that the parameters are flexible and adaptable. Thats one of the issues with TA approaches - another subject....

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  #67 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Cloudy View Post
..........I can't really say on backtesting as I've only tried backtesting on automated strategies which never worked out for me.

I know you have the best of intentions to help.
But, You always have to back test every method whether automated and/or discretionary.
At the end of the day, there has to be a reference point to decide whether it is a draw-down or the model has been broken. I agree that it is much easier to test methods on automation as oppose to discretionary
that may require variables that are hard to quantify.

M

PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
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  #68 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Toronto
 
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the truth....

The Truth:

i hope guys are happy: I not only blew my account once, twice.....but recently six times!

Everytime I blew my account, I added like 100 to top it up. then tried to trade again. Generally I would last about a month before blowing the account.


I am coming to you hoping for positive suggestions. But I know there will be individuals with low character who will just laugh.

On the positive side, I have backtested my system over the past two months and May and the average MAE is 0.5 per a trade. I video record all trades and the end of every week I go over them noting the reasons I failed. I have manually backtested my system using excel (very time consuming, but it will be very hard backtest on Ninja)

Then I use this feedback to adjust my "Rules" and trading steps. Every losing trade I learn. I don't even bother going over the winning trades.

I will demo trade for another week, and after four successful (consecutive) trades in sim, I will put on my armour and go back to the frontline.

I am also considering trading the CL (but I am assuming the skill requried and margin is too high for me).

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  #69 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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budfox View Post
The Truth:

i hope guys are happy: I not only blew my account once, twice.....but recently six times!

Everytime I blew my account, I added like 100 to top it up. then tried to trade again. Generally I would last about a month before blowing the account.


I am coming to you hoping for positive suggestions. But I know there will be individuals with low character who will just laugh.

On the positive side, I have backtested my system over the past two months and May and the average MAE is 0.5 per a trade. I video record all trades and the end of every week I go over them noting the reasons I failed. I have manually backtested my system using excel (very time consuming, but it will be very hard backtest on Ninja)

Then I use this feedback to adjust my "Rules" and trading steps. Every losing trade I learn. I don't even bother going over the winning trades.

I will demo trade for another week, and after four successful (consecutive) trades in sim, I will put on my armour and go back to the frontline.

I am also considering trading the CL (but I am assuming the skill requried and margin is too high for me).

A good place to start would be to go back and look at all the advice you got begging you to not do what you were doing, but you chose to ignore.

Do not trade CL. Trade micro's only, limit yourself to 2 trades per day. Read this thread front to back:

https://futures.io/elite-circle/11125-ask-any-trading-question.html

Also watch these webinars on how to generate a trading plan you have confidence in:



https://futures.io/webinars/june11_2013/futurestrader71_statistical_analysis/

https://futures.io/webinars/mar7_2013/futurestrader71_trade_management_techniques/

https://futures.io/webinars/may30_2012/futurestrader71_review/

https://futures.io/webinars/mar22_2012/futurestrader71_risk_trading_probabilities/

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  #70 (permalink)
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budfox View Post

I am coming to you hoping for positive suggestions.

Glad you came back. Experience is a great teacher.


budfox View Post

Every losing trade I learn. I don't even bother going over the winning trades.

Two things. I would go over the winning trades also. Sometimes you make a mistake and get lucky but you don't check because you made money. Second, Read books on trading psychology in the meantime before you go live. It will help.

Math. A gateway drug to reality.
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