thanks. I appreciate that. Lets see what happens with CL.
I have not read Mind over markets, but I have heard good things about it. I have read a couple of others such as Markets in Profile ( I think that is the name). I don't recommend that one. I found it confusing. I the read Stiedlmayer's new book which seemed to be a sales pitch for his software.
I wouldn't go as far to say I'm the man. Its nice when something plays out as analyzed. I wished I had traded it as such.
I have considered doing a thread on market profile and do analysis on CL and ES. I don't know. I'm not a financial consultant of any kind and not an expert in the field either. I'm not even a profitable trader, but the exercise may be useful. I will give is some thought.
I would still do MP analysis for you if you decide you want that. How is the book going?
This is a very good puzzle because I arrive at a conclusion or opinion, which is of course what you want, but what it brings out in me is what it interesting. My plan of action would be to go long with a stop below the trend line. What I would want to do is go long as close to the trend line as possible, but what may be the correct thing to do is wait until the high of the green candle is taken out. the reason for waiting is for the market to prove it wants to go higher. The stop loss is below the trend line because it has held so far.
Initially I would have gone short. The bar marked with the red arrow looks like rejection to me and the 3rd last bar that is an engulfing would be me confirmation of a rally that fell short and I would be short.
But then... The last two hammer like bars forming a tweezer bottom in the little consolidation area that formed after the WRB would lead me to believe this is another accumulation opportunity and not the start of a breakdown. So, right now, I'd do the following:
IMHO, I don't think you can conclude that the trend line held, since the line is simply drawn through the low of the last bar. Using the low of the last bar, means by definition that the bar "held" since it's low is use to anchor the line.
I don't think a trend line can be drawn until a new high is made. If trend lines are drawn like in the picture above, then two bars ago the trend line would have looked like the purple one in the attached picture and look like it held as well, simply because at that point it was the last bar. If the next bar make a lower low, then the trend line would look like the blue one and one would conclude again that the trend line held.
I admit that I don't use trend lines, and I could be completely wrong here. I found trend lines too subjective and too easy to draw lines the way one wants to see them. I think Trader Vic has a good explanation of drawing trend lines in a consistent and mechanical way in one of his books.
I'm sorry if this is off topic for this thread and hope it is not perceived as me being arguementative. My feelings won't be hurt if the post is moved or deleted.
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