Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
That is it Mike. It is TOO Volatile inside ever tightening swings. I am willing to risk a 1:2 because the hit rate to 4 ticks has been so high probability that it was a no brainer. On signal 85% or better to 4 ticks. Not so anymore. Now, on signal, it is 2 ticks then a big pullback.... more than I can risk. Forget runners. The adverse risk makes the stop too big if that first 4 ticks is not hit before the pullback. I could always add the gain to the risk - but only if I am getting that first target before the pullback. So, I am having to make adaptations to how I trade - a potentially dangerous undertaking. A simple solution would be to not trade my bread and butter strategy for a while until I am able to adapt. I took a break these last couple of weeks while I pondered this, and ran some scenarios. Time will tell. Unfortunately, R&D is never free.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I've been following you on your blog via my RSS reader now for over two years....you've been nothing but consistent posting your winners and losers....not many vendors do this...however in light of the above, I went back to the blog and noticed the following....
March 18 CL +38
March 14 CL +48
March 13 CL +73
March 12 CL +30
March 8, CL +66
March 7 CL No trades listed
March 6 CL -16
March 4 CL +101....nice big runner..saved an otherwise losing day.
March 1 CL +39
etc....all the way back through the beginning of February which is as far back as I checked before posting.
You had a very good run on CL these last few weeks. Now I'm wondering about your statements above about CL being to volatile to trade safely. I know you scalp out pretty quick and I also know the quick hits are not as easy to come by lately, but you seem to be handling it very well.
Are your statements above soley about risk? In other words you are taking more risk to get these numbers than you used to? If thats the case, it still seems to be working out nicely.
Then you've taken the last couple of weeks off...yet the blog continues to show solid performance these last two weeks. Are the last couple of weeks sim work to revise and retool trading to fit the new dynamic in CL and only the live room members know this or are these live results produced while you retooling and revising?
I'm curious because I've always respected you and your trading consistency as well as your blunt honesty about trading on your website and yet it appears there are some inconsistencies between the blog results and your statements above. I'm sure I've simply overlooked something but thought I'd jump in and find out.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Most important is to note the MAE and MFE per trade. Yes, I have been doing ok, but what you cannot see on the trade posting results is the frustration I have been experiencing. When I say it is getting harder, it really is the amount of exhaustion I am feeling while I am trading. There are days when I just turn on the auto traders and just manage as best I can, because filtering all the crap is just too tough. I am a discretionary trader, and a scalper looking for bigger trades. Lately I get the feeling that there is no bigger trade to be had, at least not the way I trade. Sure, I manage the trades well enough to do ok, but I am not getting anywhere near what I used to at the end of the month. And, on top of that, I am exhausted by the time I hit my goal. maybe its my age... or maybe I am just complaining. But I have noticed a change in the CL since Nov 2012 that is bothering me. Today I had a MVB trade setup that I talked myself out of. The entrance was .44, and the heat was only 4 or 5 ticks, but I talked myself out of it for one reason or another, and it went on to deliver the full range down to the low set in pre-market. The character of the CL is changing, maybe the entire market. I have the feeling that we are in for a major event. OK, I am over 60 and maybe its my age, but this all reminds me of a major crash about to happen and it is bothering me. Here in BM forum, you guys are the only ones who I can talk to about this. So, maybe that is it.
Anyway, heads up. Thanks for all the interest in this series of posts. Be careful. Something is coming that is really giving me the chills. Or maybe my testosterone levels are too low...sigh...
I understand what you are saying, the nature of the market has changed....I posted about this a few weeks back about how the ADR has been dramatically reduced since November 20th. Its slightly more expanded now but not much. Which would explain the frustration levels for people used to 2 and 3 dollar days on CL.
I have found that instead of 3-4 swings of 50+ per day, maybe there's one or two and you need to nail the entry to get anything bigger than 20-30 ticks most days.
Here's a daily chart with the ADR marked, I think it explains the frustration levels many are feeling. I for one have lowered my expectations to 25 or ticks a day and that seems to be working ok for the most part.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Something I look at that is helping is boundaries of the 30 minute bars. That is where I am seeing opportunities appear. I look for a break of the previous 30 bar's high or low with an increase of volume. I don't take ALL breaks of the 30 minute high or low but I certainly watch them closely.
As everyone knows I am a listed vendor. Yes, I will help people get through this steep learning curve for a fee. I work for a living, and I am not a doctor. There is no conflict between my willingness to share my experiences with anyone and charging a small fee for it.
However, after over 10 years as a trader and 5 as a vendor there are some facts that I just have to mention. I am only going to mention the main 3 that I think are the crucial ones. There are many more.
Number 1 - MOST TRADERS ARE UNREALISTIC about this business. And worse, it is not their fault. The crap fed to them from the industry brokers and most other vendors really f*&%ks with their heads.
Number 2- There is no magic and no better anything anywhere. You simply pick something you can relate to and practice, practice, practice. 10,000 hours is par.
Number 3 - Making money in trading has almost nothing to do with the reasons you used to get into the market.
So, whoever you go to for help, they cannot possibly solve your trading woes. All they can do is show you a possible solution based on their own experiences and results. That is the best anyone can do, and the rest is up to you. If they say anything different they are lying, or trying to charge you for your own delusions.
The very best will SHOW you what they do. They help you understand what it is that you are doing wrong and what you are doing right. This is the result of more successful experience than you. Nothing more.
So, no matter what anyone tells you, You are doomed to travel the same painful road. The distance you travel down this road is about all that anyone can help you with. It will be longer or shorter depending on how well you are able to apply successfully the experience you are buying. No indicators, methods or systems have your answers. The best anyone can do is help you find your own answers quicker.
That is so true. I also came into this with pie in the sky fantasies. I'm still amazed at how completely suckered I was, because I'm a very skeptical person who normally never falls for anything!
I truly believed I was set for life. It was so bad that when I saw discussions in person or online among value investors or people wondering what to do with their 401k's, I would scoff at it internally. Didn't these people know about futures and MACD divergences? They weren't in the know like me, I thought smugly. I'm embarrassed to admit that now but it's the reality of where my mind was at.
But when you hear about Dan Zanger's wild ride from 10k to 40 million, can you really blame someone for getting hooked?
