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Introduce yourself here!
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Introduce yourself here!

  #8111 (permalink)
pottstown pa usa
 
 
Posts: 2 since May 2018
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hello all

new to forum and trading

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  #8112 (permalink)
Atlanta Georgia USA
 
 
Posts: 4 since Feb 2017
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pawel108 View Post
Pre Scriptum
Sorry for my english.


Generally, I have been investing fundamentally for several years, but somewhere there
I once read that it was mathematically proven that the price movement
is a stochastic process - geometric Brownian movement - that is, there is a trend line and the price swigns around it with specific deviation (with normal distribution).

Since mathematics says it, there is no joke

I am interested in the topic - and I am looking for how one can use these statistic
characteristics (mean reversion, volatility mean reversion, etc.).

I have found this forum through polish blog "spekulant.com.pl"

Based on this - I am now trying to build some simple and objective strategies based od trend or mean reversion - and then test them for several months.

Thank You for Your work,
Paweł

Pawel,

Well sir, that's interesting! With your fundamental experience you may be more than half where there!

I am looking for an analogy, my background is aviation, so I will try to use that. For a Fundamental Trader to learn Technical Trading may compare to a Helicopter Pilot to learn to fly a fixed wing airplane. The aerodynamics produce the similar results but the way you apply the aerodynamics changes significantly. The Helo Pilot will have to learn that he can not hover. Helo pilots do not fly in the clouds (zero viability) on instruments so he will have to learn to fly by trusting the needles on the gauges and reading the charts.

From reading your recent response it is fair to say that you are well educated and probably have an engineering, science or similar background. But perhaps the first two things you need know are;

1) the mathematical strategies and indicators that you may use are capable of returning exact results but the data you plan to apply that science to often contain so many variables that the best we can expect from the results is about 50% accuracy, sometimes I think that tossing a coin might give better results.

2) the strategies and indicators that you might base your decisions on are ALL lagging indicators based on what has already happened, they cannot accurately predict the future. The best you can expect is that your indicators might eliminate one or two of the many possible outcomes.

This leads me to a recommendation for your next step. Statistical Analysis combined with Chart Reading techniques and proper Loss Management techniques has proven to give good results "over time". The absolute best mentor you will ever find is a long time well respected member of this forum, he has just started new group called Convergent Trading and they are trying a new approach to helping traders learn to trade on a professional level. I must warn you though, some days it is like trying to drink water from a fire hose :-) He is a professional trader known in the industry as FT71, see his new site at convergenttrading.com . If you find his old site at futurestrader71.com you can learn more about him but do not buy the videos on that site because they are becoming obsolete as we speak.

Finally, I want to say, there are hundreds of vendors out there that want to sell you "special" Indicators, Strategies and training for hundred or thousands of dollars, but I do not recommend going that route because most of it is bogus. Also, many of the Charting Vendors have Charting Platforms with hundreds of indicators and strategies built in to their systems, and that is fine, but you really need to learn to "read the price action" as a foundation and use the fancy indicators as confirmation. You can use any charting system with a live simulator mode, such as NinjaTrader, to learn to the read the charts and test your theories, usually without funding an account. But do not trade real $$$ until you have proven your theories beyond any doubt on the sim.

Best of luck!
Mike C

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  #8113 (permalink)
Hong Kong
 
 
Posts: 1 since May 2018
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

Hello


Hi Everyone,

I am been trading Hong Kong index futures for a few years. My win loss ratio is 10:1 but I am still losing lots of money since I made 500 HKD but lost 6000 HKD, simply because I cannot learn to cut loss. I will add on to loss and cut when it is too late. Another issue I have is sometimes I trade like gambling throwing away all my rules when I lose.

I hope I can improve myself here. I kept a detail journal on my trades but yet I cannot overcome my emotions during loss.

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  #8114 (permalink)
Lansing, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 9 since May 2018
Thanks: 21 given, 11 received

Cześź,

My name is Aaron and I currently reside in the Midwest. Below is a little bit about me, and my story:

I grew up in a small agricultural community that consisted of some very large farming operations. And while I didn’t farm, I worked for farmers. Sleeping over at a friends house meant helping them with their chores, and then being too tired to play SNES or Sega anyways and just falling asleep. My father didn’t farm, but family members on both sides of my family were Agri producers. My fathers side consisted of business owners, doctors, surgeons, engineers, both enlisted and commissioned members of the military, nurses, teachers, happy house wives, physicists that are currently researching well underground on the SNO+ Higgs Proton project and classically trained musicians. We also have one non-denominational preacher, and one deacon in our family (We’re a large Polish Catholic family, so the non-denom preacher is the outcast. lol) My mothers side consists of business owners, the highest of high level executive level personal at Ford and Fiat-Chrysler, an owner of a bank whom was also the mayor of his 100,000 population town, union members in various skilled trades, an uncle that is a large operation physical grain producer/hedger, and then... a few family members that are generational welfare recipients that include a murderer, a stripper, and a few drug addict dead beat parents.

That’s where I come from, and now we come to me:

I grew up in Ann Arbor, MI. “Go Blue!” I went to a class-D school where I was a savant level saxophone player and musical arranger. I played football as a nose guard until everyone got bigger than me and kept giving me concussions. After that, I decided that I should just be the punter. Lol

After graduation of highschool, I went to a community college for Music a Performance (Transfer Agreement with a university of Michigan). After completing my two years at CC, the economic crises hit; however, I needed money for university, so I joined the Naval Reserves as a UT-Seabee drilling while attending university. After finishing training, I moved up to Marquette, MI and began attending Northern Michigan University as a Music Education and Technical Theatre major. I later changed my major, and graduated with a Bachelors of Science in Industrial Science with a Minor in Industrial Climate Systems.

After graduation, I was offered a six-figure job (not including the insanely great benefits package) and moved away from my fiancé to start building our life, and preparing a home for us in Minneapolis — We married eight months later, and she moved to Minneapolis. Life was good. It was nice having my best friend back. I began working for a company that dealt primarily with industrial climate and HUGE mechanical systems for nuclear power plants, refineries, and hospitals designing and installing critical climate systems. All the while, I was working during the day, I was also going to a local state university for Electrical Engineering during the evenings. Eventually I left that job, and became a Controls Engineer, and designed and installed building automation Direct Digital Control Systems in Industrial settings, stadiums, hospitals, and every single skyscraper in the twin cities. (I still maintain the building automation system and have network access to Cargill and UBS.) After graduating from the state university, an employer paid for me to attend U of M - Madison for a certificate in Robotics and Automation.

And then I was involved in an Industrial accident causing my back to be destroyed and in need of surgery, and having to leave my career as a hands on industrial Controls Engineer. So what did I decide to do?

Well, since I was involved in the trades and had management experience, my wife and I started to flip homes. I bought my first house for $160k. It was a 1937 1.5 story cedar shake bungalow next to one of the oldest private Law Schools in the United States. To make a long story short regarding the house: I had an egress window installed in the basement, replaced the basement carpet, and included a 10’x 15’ basement hydroponic garden setup for scientific experiments regarding plant cloning and trait stabilization in Carolina Reaper hot peppers. Everything I had done to that house cost me $3500 — no more. no less. I sold the house 18 months later for $250k and made the buyers literally pay for everything on my side of the closing. It was awesome... and this is where my trading became more active, and not so much passive as it had been for a few years in my while messing with my individual trading account, and my employer 401(k).

When I first started “messing around” in stocks a few years prior, I got lucky buying natural gas very low, CNX low, and CLF at its near lifetime low. My positions were small consisting of only one thousand shares of each company; however, in under one year, CLF was a 10+ bagger, and CNX was a 3 bagger for me. I officially had my stake, and it was all based on using my industrial science degree in a way that I never knew that I could. This was all during the time of the house “remodel” which was nice because it kept me busy while my employees were there doing the work, so that I wouldn’t hurt my back further.

Moving into the election season, I started noticing social media blowing up about marijuana companies being the next “1990’s tech boom,” so I decided to toss a little money into the pot and ride the pump before the dump. I got in at below one cent, and sold everything when the market started trading a little less thin around Halloween days before the election. Lucky for me, I got out before Jeff Sessions got in causing not only the dump, but an extreme retracement to historic lows. Trading in the marijuana market was literally more useless to a trader than tits are on a boar. I officially had enough to start learning to trade futures and options.

When I found out how commodity futures trade, I was also intrigued by the fact that I could hedge my positions with options. I enjoyed the fact that I was safe if my futures positions went against me because I had my options to bail me out. Conversely, if my futures position proved to be favorable, I could just let my options contracts expire worthless. I finally found the area of the market that I loved the most. It was also the type of trading that made the most sense to me. I’m sure glad that I didn’t start trading binary options like most of the friends that I talked into trading binary options because there was “limited risk.” lol

Fast forward one year: the houses were sold, my accounts were funded, but my back was still hurt. (P.s my wife was, and still is, supportive of the trading, and the constant talking about how this or that world event could effect this commodity or that commodity. My wife even reads me financial books like “On Up on Wall Street” while we’re in the car driving.) Since I couldn’t work in my previous field, had a massive three year no competition agreement with my last employer, and wasn’t able to use my last 12 years of university education plus thousands and thousands of hours of real on the job experience, I sued my ex-employer because I was stuck in the house not able to do anything but watch my rear-end grow and it was killing me. And what was the injury settlement you might ask? The employer had to pay for four years of me going back to school at University of Michigan (I am currently in the Computer Science program, but have thought about switching to the Bachelors of Science degree “Mathematics of Finance and Risk Management” because it allows me the option to get an accelerated masters degree my senior year plus one extra year in “Quantitative Finance and Risk Management.” Both degrees together are nearly a Computer Science degree but with Finance courses and way more upper level Mathematics beyond Calculus 4. I have a little bit of time to decide, because the first year or two are nearly the same classes. A few C++ classes, Philadelphia ysics 1 and 2, two General Chemistry classes, and four upper level mathematics class.

I have more that I would like, and inform you all about you my passions, but it’s late at night, I babysat to little girls under 10, I have a three month old baby in my arms, and I have mass to take everybody to early in the morning.

So, I’ll have to tell you all about starting/building/running the largest fly fishing supply business in the Midwest and east coast later. I’ll have to tell you all about my love for doing frame-off-restorations on anything with a big block with my father. I’ll have to wait and tell you all about my love for racing motocross, enduros, and hare-scrambles later.

Thank you all for this wonderful board.

Dobranoc i do widzenia,

Aaron M
Proud Catholic
Proud Husband
Proud Father
Intermediate Grain trader
Feedlot Owner

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  #8115 (permalink)
Panama
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: TWS, Tastyworks
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Crude CL
 
Posts: 1 since May 2018
Thanks: 1 given, 0 received

Recommendation for someone trading stocks instead of futures

I joined this forum because of new found interest in back-testing strategies in order to find a valid edge. I am also researching what scanner tool and configuration to use for stocks. Are most resources I will find through this forum be of little use for a stock trader? Or they are just as good for stocks or Forex? Is there another forum like this one I should go to for stocks? Or I shouldn't be intimidated by the name futures.io and there are people here that can help with stock trading too?

Chris

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  #8116 (permalink)
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,731 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,458 given, 2,342 received


ipopanama View Post
I joined this forum because of new found interest in back-testing strategies in order to find a valid edge. I am also researching what scanner tool and configuration to use for stocks. Are most resources I will find through this forum be of little use for a stock trader? Or they are just as good for stocks or Forex? Is there another forum like this one I should go to for stocks? Or I shouldn't be intimidated by the name futures.io and there are people here that can help with stock trading too?

Chris

Hi Chris,

Here is the link to the stocks section
https://futures.io/stocks-etfs-trading/
(there is a scanner thread there in the stickies)

I trade futures. Stocks in the past. Many of the threads, comments and ideas are applicable to both.
Money management, trade indicators setups etc, trading psychology and so on.

Really the differences in futures are:
high leverage
no stock "story"

I hope that helps
Welcome to the board.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #8117 (permalink)
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,731 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,458 given, 2,342 received


pawel108 View Post
Pre Scriptum
Sorry for my english.


Generally, I have been investing fundamentally for several years, but somewhere there
I once read that it was mathematically proven that the price movement
is a stochastic process - geometric Brownian movement - that is, there is a trend line and the price swigns around it with specific deviation (with normal distribution).

Since mathematics says it, there is no joke

I am interested in the topic - and I am looking for how one can use these statistic
characteristics (mean reversion, volatility mean reversion, etc.).

I have found this forum through polish blog "spekulant.com.pl"

Based on this - I am now trying to build some simple and objective strategies based od trend or mean reversion - and then test them for several months.

Thank You for Your work,
Paweł

Hi Pawel,

Definitely others here at the board have worked on mean reversal strategies and you should be able to find threads on what others have done and indicators for mean reversal. There is also a strategies section.

Best of luck and welcome to the board.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; May 13th, 2018 at 11:29 PM.
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  #8118 (permalink)
Legendary market donator
Indianoplace, IN
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Rrrracer's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,013 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 12,277 given, 7,354 received

Hey @amarzec, great intro... I would offer that you should start a journal here, copy it over, then continue your story... a fascinating read. I'm originally from southern MI, and my sister is a U of M alumni Welcome and best of luck, sir. This is a great community.

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  #8119 (permalink)
Lansing, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 9 since May 2018
Thanks: 21 given, 11 received


Rrrracer View Post
Hey @amarzec, great intro... I would offer that you should start a journal here, copy it over, then continue your story... a fascinating read. I'm originally from southern MI, and my sister is a U of M alumni Welcome and best of luck, sir. This is a great community.



Rrrracer, that’s cool to hear. SE Michigan has really been changing a lot, and areas of Detroit have been changed wonderfully.


Aaron M.
Proud Catholic
Proud Husband
Proud Father
Grain Trader
Feedlot Owner

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  #8120 (permalink)
rimini Italia
 
 
Posts: 2 since May 2018
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

Here I Am


For First: i apologize for the mistake that i can made writing in english! I need to improve it!

Bio:

My name is Giammarco, i'm Italian guy and i'm 22! I Study finance at University of Bologna and in parallel i I delve into the things that interest me for example trading, macroeconomics ecc. since 2012 when i was 16.
I think that a professional trader need to have a lot of knowledge
I Know, i'm very young but i love the "world" of Finance especially Trading.
In 2012 i start my approach, every single day, reading and living the markets in particular at the start i was focused on our Italian Market.
In 2013 i had my first Trade, i bought some shares of CAMPARI an Italian company but probably you know it. Was a pretty good Trade!
In 2017 i open my first real account for day trading with futures (very little only 5k), i was really excited but the reality is that i was scared...initially i trembled before and during a trade.
In a little time i understand that emotionality is the key...after technique you need to improve your self control and to had the correct mindset...here i am...finding my balance.
For the first six months i traded miniFIB the mini-future about the Italian Stock Index FTSE MIB- 1€ per point , minimum tick 5 points. So i had a leverage with my balance on my account of 1:4,5.
The first two quarter was terrible, loss were the mood.
After i changed instruments, i started to trade MiniDAX (leverage of 1:12 referred to my balance) ....i know with only 5k is a suicide....
But... i find it more comfortable to my personality.
At the end of the first year of real trading with futures i lose money....but if i eliminate the money that i pay for commissions i'm profitable.
Some other traders tell's to me that it's a pretty good results after only one year...the FIRST!
In 2018 i started to improve my trading but especially my mind-set to estimate correctly the risk or to control my self...
The road is long we says in Italy...but passion and determination are not lacking.

Enjoy your Trading !


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