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Hi,
I have not joined anything like this before, looking forward to being able to talk through things with others. Any thoughts on futures markets before end of yr (fiscal cliff)?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Hello,
I'm a beginner trader from Aosta,Italy for now i trade only long terms stock but i bought multicharts and i try to write a trading system..i have the capital but no the skills so if some informatics wants to make a society,contact me . bye
Retired after almost 30 years of State service. I did various types of work for the state but for most of those years I did various types of analysis. I also have some background in computer programing and networking.
Looking for a new challenge I've started day trading Forex. It's tricky but fortunately I've lost only a few hundred dollars. Half of that was due to stupid mistakes and once the data feed went down for a few minutes right in the middle of a trade. Could have been much worse Changing from paper trading to live trading was almost like night an day. It really set up some false expectations.
I'm very open for suggestions and read several books. Please comment and recommendations are welcome.
Basically came here for discussion/ideas as I just opened Zecco brokerage/FX accounts (I think through TradeKing now). I previously traded at an IB so couldn't trade on proprietary accounts but now I've left the industry so I'm looking forward to venturing out with my own capital
My two cents but I've been thru the beginners cycle with FX and i would recommend spending the time watching the order flow in a DOM for the FX futures contracts that the CME offers....That way you can see the volume hitting the bid and offer and get some transparency into the auction process. Might take you several hundred hours of screen time but its worth it.
Appreciate the advice very much. Maybe you can help with an area that has been puzzling me.
I know FX spot and FX futures are connected, but how do you feel that affect intraday activity - say on a 60 min or 15 min chart?
Does the spot market lead the futures market or the other way around?
I believe that political correctness can be a form of linguistic fascism, and it sends shivers down the spine of my generation who went to war against fascism.
- - P. D. James
The markets are all correlated to risk on or risk off, plus individual economic factors. With FX the key pairs follow the lead from the market most dominate at the time of day, and then the individual sovereignty. For example...the Aussie could be following the Asian markets, but then take a turn from a monetary related issue, like an employment number (probably be a little undecided until the number comes out). Getting used to the times to trade FX is as important as the pair to trade. You can trade both but when the CME opens, to ignore the depth of market, would be like flying a plane without instruments IMO....
The ES (S&P 500 mini) does not lead the market when Asia or Europe are trading...they lead the ES.
Lots of screen time is of great benefit. These guys that are good here are all following the the big movers...the Asian markets, then the DAX, the ES, Gold, Oil, the treasuries....
My first foray into the trading world was in 1997. At the time, I worked a very tough, manual labor job. However, once I got my first taste of trading options, I was hooked! I turned $500 into $5000 within a couple of months. But, like a lot of people, I kept reinvesting all of my profits into single trades. My first big mistake was in buying a boatload of Digital Equipment call options. I lost nearly all of it!
But then, upon realizing that I didn't know what I was doing, I thought it would be great to have a mentor. At the time, I lived in a very small town about 60 miles south of Chicago, so my prospects for finding such a mentor nearby were slim. Even so, I managed to find George Lane, the developer of the Stochastics indicator and a 50 year veteran trader. He lived in a town just a few miles from me. Moreover, as it turned out, he also taught courses on technical analysis!
I managed to scrape together the $3000 I needed to take his course (about a third of my annual income) and as it turned out, he was in need of an assistant. When my class was over, he asked if I'd like to stay on and help with the business. Naturally, I jumped at the chance! It felt like one of those once in a lifetime opportunities.
From then on, my life was never the same. I met people from all over the world and almost all of them were intelligent and very successful in their respective professions. Anyway, in order to keep up with the student's learning demands, I worked my tail off night and day. I got pretty good at just looking at the charts and making accurate calls, but I think that was because people expected that of me and I rose to the challenge. I didn't want to disappoint them.
After about a year of this, people started throwing money at me left and right. They could see me make accurate calls right in front of them time and again, so I must have looked like a cash cow to them. I constantly refused their money however, even though I didn't have enough to trade futures with (oh yeah, I never bothered with stocks. I went from options straight to futures). Finally, after watching the many thousands of dollars a day come and go in the S&P, I couldn't take it any more and decided that I'd jump at the next offer. Shortly after, two students came along - a couple of doctors from India and Egypt, upon knowing me for only three days, handed over $100,000 for me to trade with. I was psyched! I was pretty scared too because my reputation as a teacher was on the line (a pressure that, as a developing trader, I did NOT need).
But here's the thing... I WAS NOT A TRADER! I was only an analyst - a very good analyst, but an analyst nonetheless. There's a real difference! I didn't know that at the time, but I was about to find out.
Despite my inexperience and many fears, I have to say that I did fair with my first account. I turned a 40% profit within a couple of months, but they were all scalp trades. At the time, I thought I was a failure. It was such a letdown. Anyway, the two gentlemen took their money back. I guess they expected more from me. I know I did, however irrational that actually was.
Just then, another student came along. This guy was a retired big businessman and really wanted me to mentor him, but I would have to move. He seemed like just the right kind of guy to help me with my confidence, so I decided to take a leap and move away from my little town for the very first time.
I don't think I've ever been treated so well. I felt like a part of his family even. The man also bought me a 4 bedroom house to live in if you can believe that! Freaking incredible, right? Well that's how the world of trading can be. If you can do it, people who understand the value of passion and dedication will gladly invest in you because you exhibit the same traits as they do. Such folks actually exist and I was so glad to have met many of them.
Well, in spite of all the good treatment I STILL was not a true trader. I was scared out of my wits all the time. And to top it all off, I was actually trying to make myself a living off of the profits of a $100,000 account; profits that were split, so in reality, I was trying to do it with $50,000. Let's see... to live a decent life it would take a 100% return per year, every year....
I tried HARD not to think of the odds against my success, but as a trader you have to think in terms of probabilities and it's impossible to turn that off. I had to trade LARGE relative to my capital just to make it. Sometimes I'd trade 5 Nasdaq futures contracts with that $100k and at that time, the market was boiling like mad. The fills, at times, had $5000 slippage. By the time the order hit the pit and was filled, the market had already moved 50 points and on top of a 100 point stop loss, each contract, if I only traded 1 lots, was a 15% risk on my account. So yeah, it made me NUTS! I still can't believe I did that!
I drew that account down to $4000 at one point. I didn't even have enough margin to day trade, but I suspected the market top was almost in. For two weeks, I planned to short it in spite of my margin issues. I knew the broker personally and he knew I was well-backed so I figured he'd let it pass.
I planned that trade like I was a sub commander on his last torpedo. If I missed, that would be it. Maybe I'd lose my house along with my reputation and future as a trader. Truly, I was betting the whole farm. But, after using every trick I had up my sleeve to plan and execute the trade, I took my shot and sank that big bastard! Oh my GOD! That was the scariest thing I ever did in my life! I mean the whole damned world was saying one thing and here I was, at my all-time worst losing streak ever, about to do the opposite on my last bullet.
Could it have been any more dramatic?
By the time two weeks had passed, my account was up to $190,000 - a 90% return on the year. However, by the time I recovered monetarily, I was emotionally burned out. I did manage to get the account in the neighborhood of $250k via some more adventuresome exploits, but by then trading had taken a severe toll on my mental and emotional health. Unfortunately, I believed that EVERY trader went through what I had. The truth is, the very successful ones do not put themselves through situations like that. They know better.
I stopped trading in 2001. For ten years, I worked 'safe' jobs in banks and in clinical research. But I NEVER forgot about trading. It kept calling to me like a long lost love. Last year, I started trading the E-Mini with a $5000 account that somebody subsidized for me but I lost it within two months. Apparently my skills were a bit rusty. But I kept working at it night and day and finally, at last, I have some clue as to what's going on.
I made some major decisions, given my experiences. First, I decided that I will only use my own money because I NEVER truly had the opportunity to fail without people peeking over my shoulder - especially if they expect some kind of windfall. I don't need the pressure. Second, it's less complicated when it comes to doling out dollars should profits come.
The other key decision I've made is that I will ALWAYS trade a size position that, should it win or lose, will not excite me. Over the years I've learned that even making, as opposed to losing, large amounts of money on a single trade relative to overall equity is a potentially damaging thing; it sets up a future failure via a lack of discipline. Sure, there will be times that exceptional trades will come along, but I do not think it's wise to have 10-20% equity swings on normal, single trades that only last a day or two. If there are such swings, the fear will be too much for me and I won't take the truly good setups that come along.
Since I'm not well-capitalized, I've also decided to trade the Forex micro lots to start with. I believe this will greatly assist me in developing good habits and self-discipline. I think I can easily stomach a $10 loss per trade, but at the same time, since I will have real money on the line, I will still learn proper execution and money management skills.
I am truly excited to be learning how to trade in the right way - FINALLY! Moreover, I'm excited to be a part of this forum. I've read many, many posts from some very good traders here and have learned quite a lot from them.
Looks like a positive atmosphere around here so figurred Id sign up. My trading background is in investing long term and building my retirement accounts and assets. Im self employed and believe the social security system will fail me and the powers that be are not on my side and are basically thieves in sheeps clothing. That said , I also believe in the power of positive thinking and accept reality for what it is . I trade stocks both long and short and use a proprietary method I developed over the last 10 years . Risk management is my secret weapon and consistent execution is all the effort I put in .
. bye
Changing from paper trading to live trading was almost like night an day. It really set up some false expectations.
