I had to smile when you said you were at a crossroads. I'm 62 and have discovered that there are crossroads in front of you everyday. It's your choice then to keep on a chosen road or choose another.
I will gladly share my viewpoint but would really love to read some answers to some questions. Whether you answer or not I will still share my viewpoint in a few days.
1) Why don't you keep going with poker? I've been doing some writing about trading and poker playing is a comparison I make to trading. That is not to say that they are the same in all things but there are a lot of similarities. Many would say poker is gambling and trading isn't (or shouldn't be). I maintain a professional poker is not a gambler but a combination of a statistician and negotiator.
2) How much time do you think it is going to take you to reach the point of consistent, profitable trading?
3) ... and how much money do you think it will cost? (I am not asking you a personal financial question.)
4) I would suspect as you learned to play poker successfully you learned a lot of lessons the hard way (i.e. you lost money). How do you feel about going through another round of lessons?
I hope you don't mind sharing your viewpoints and that you don't consider the questions too personal.
Nice to see I'm not the only one at a crossroads here. I don't mind answering your questions at all.
1. I'm not quite quitting poker. The problem is that on April of last year the US DOJ shut down access to the most popular, and profitable, poker sites in the world. These were sites where I played on and won a lot of money on and after the government crackdown it has become exceedingly difficult to find good profitable reliable poker sites that will service US customers. This government crackdown has left a great number of us poker players without a good stream of revenue and aside from moving to Las Vegas or a different country to play poker, something that I am not ready to do, I decided to look into other ways to make money. I still plan to play poker to get some money, however there will be no where near enough dead money around as there was prior to April of 2011. Since I have always had somewhat of an infatuation with the stock market I thought that I would give trading a shot.
2. I honestly don't know how long it will take to become a consistent profitable trader. Fortunately time is something that I have a lot of at this point. It took me a couple of years to learn to become a profitable poker player and I'm not ruling out the scenario that it may take a couple of years to become a successful trader.
3. Again, a question that I honestly don't know the answer to. I gave myself $40,000 to play around with for this trading adventure. I thought his would be sufficient since most places I have read say to start with $30,000 - $40,000.
4. Another round of lessons is something I expect. I'm not going into this thinking that I will start trading profitably and successfully immediately. As a poker player, even a successful one, you go into each game with the mindset that you may leave that game with nothing. Even being profitable in poker doesn't mean you will walk away a winner each day, or even each month, each game is a lesson.
I hope these answers suffice. If there is anything else anyone would like to know just ask.
The following 2 users say Thank You to wats0210 for this post:
Thank you for such an open response. Here's my feedback:
1) Unless you are really good or really lucky, you need to be thinking in terms of years (at least 2) to become a successful trader. The length of time will depend upon at least two things: i) how hard and how smart you work at it; ii) how open you are to realizing that trading depends upon your ability to handle risk which manifests itself as fear and greed. 95% of traders lose and the major reason for this is holding losers and letting go of winners. They fear getting out of a trade with a small loss and stay in until it hurts too much and get it of winners early because they fear that price will revert. As a poker player you should understand this pretty well so it's a matter of how you adapt to it when you can't see the other players at the table with you.
2) My purpose in asking you about money was more to confirm you didn't think you could do this for a few thousand. Under capitalization is one of the other major reasons for failure. If you have enough capital to weather a string of (small) losses and if you increase and decrease the number of contracts on each trade relative to your capital (1%-2%?) then you stand a chance of lasting long enough to survive the learning period. Once again I think your poker playing will apply here. I don't know much about poker but I have heard the term "all in". That might work when you are able to see your competition and all of the cards that are visible but trading isn't like that. I would never recommend an all-in strategy in trading. Might as well just bet even/odd on the roulette wheel and enjoy a free drink.
3) I have been putting together an e-book or an e-course for what it takes to learn trading. This is not a financial venture but an effort to first help myself and hopefully help others. When it gets far enough along I am going to try and make it available for collaboration. The main theme of this book/course is that trading is similar to many professions: sports (baseball, football, golf); business (doctors, pilots); gamblers (21, poker). With few exceptions the best have put a lot of time and effort into rising to the top. Sports people engage in continuous rigorous physical, repetitive training; business people have long term, disciplined training with apprenticeships; gamblers spend years studying statistics and people. When I look at the training available for traders it normally consists of 1 day, 5 day, a few weeks of training and then you're supposed to be ready to make your fortune or as most people do lose it. Do you see a correlation?
As someone said in another message "just my opinion" but everything is just an opinion.
My message boils down to this:
1) You can learn the technical stuff in weeks and it seems to be a well kept secret that simple is best. I personally prefer to watch price action over several time frames. I have indicators on some charts but I don't trade with them per se.
2) You will need to learn trade or risk management. It is easy to get into a trade and there are very good arguments that you can flip a coin to get into a trade and be successful as long as you manage the trade once you are in. Too many people think that the entry is the challenge and then don't keep their eye on the ball.
3) You need to do a lot of 'training' to develop discipline, focus, patience, etc. Some of your poker experience will come in handy here. One major difference for you will be that poker is like scalping - each hand/trade can be over in a few minutes and some times longer. If you engage in longer trade periods you have to deal with the emotions associated with nothing significantly positive happening for hours.
4) I get upset when I hear educators telling people to control their emotions. You can't control them once they have happened. Only enough training and experience will result in those emotions not happening too often. When they do, you need to control your actions based upon a plan you are committed to sticking too.
Hope this helps. If you have any specific questions, fire away.
Hey Mike, my name is Dan Hoyda. I am a student finishing my chemical engineering degree this semester and am interested in trading! I have been watching FX on tradestation and am interested in learning some of the indicator programs to notice things others may have missed. Thanks for this forum, I'm glad to be here.
10 or 15 yrs ago I traded options from over the phone while working in the construction trades....did alrite, hung in there, then bought gold at a 40 yr low (call options) No brainer..nailed about 15 grand...that gave me some extra to play with...learned about futures...that was before it was like today, do it ur self w/ computer.
Up $600 next day listen to broker and lose $600....did better when I did my own home work...
Got away from it for a few yrs then got back into it in the last 4 yrs or so...
Since then ive blown my account once real good and dipped down to barely being able to trade...accouple of times...Rite now Im below the mininum and waiting for my deposit to post...and now I believe ive learned some lessons...not to over trade and chase..and allow profits to run (some how ?)
Recently I was only trading once a day and was moving forward then over holidays w/ distractions and excitement I over traded a bit....got the fever...now Im paying for it
I promise to make it...thanks for listening....well, reading...
Glad to join this forum- from what is out there, it seems really good: webinars, articles and etc. especially for people who like code and technical analisys Well what else is there? (fundamental and insader trading . )
My sails are however today on low- again another ("small") account was blown. It seems that no matter how one positions on- the market will just find a way to obliterate that rule. Hopefully that is just with me. I know, some people will say, some suckers are born to loose, and they position themselves in order to loose. Well, after deep thinking and so much intorspective work- still I can not change the wind on my sails (rather 'position my sails to the wind'). So the question is: is anybody on this forum making $$ or are we all learners?
I know, hard question.
Apparently so many techniques: MACD divergence, delta-what-not, 15 minutes brakeouts, lines, fibos, etc... but consistently, my goodness, I'm on the verge to say: farewell market!
Just the internal pain, bruised ego, my success in other endeavors, has made me that perhaps I have not yet found my 'golden goose method'.
Well, at list for the time being, i'll slow down and diminish the takeout of some really adept traders.
I wish you all luck and joy in all you do!
The following user says Thank You to lamass for this post:
Ive been trading forex since 2005 and futures since 2006.
Ive been investing long term value in stocks since 1997.
I have some that are still doing well, others that got busted badly in 08.
I never touch forex any more, since I figured it was actually fake, and it was just all in one big account at the broker.
Who manipulated your trading to keep it.
Even though in futures you can be manipulated, it takes their own money and work to do it.
In forex this is not the case.
The only way to trade Forex in my mind legitimately, is to have multi currency bank accounts through a bank.
And exchange currency and pay a commission like sending a wire.
But then you do not have the larger profit margins and losses doing it that way or the smaller order moving capacity.
But the bank gives you a fixed price, it doesn't move or the spread doesn't change you know what you will get.
So it is longer term investing like in stocks to do it properly.
Ive never blown up a whole account, im just like that, I back off and do something else and just try to refine and watch to see if I can figure it out.
Ive blown 50% though, but then I back off, I never go to complete retard mode.
Typical stupid mistakes not using stops not keeping to my stops/plan etc.
The only time ive had an account blown 90%+ is from a managed account with someone else trading it.
Will never do that again.
One thing that interests me, is why so many traders use the US cash session of the stock market as the gospel for levels and templates.
Because the world markets have been global 24/7 for quite a long time.
If you look at the financial crisis crashes, most of them fell much more before the US market even opened.
So I never base my analysis on just the US cash session, because although there is far more volume in this time.
It doesn't begin or end there.
And also many other traders trade currencies like the Euro and Gbp, during the US session as well.
When the larger moves happen in the European session.
Also another thing, floor traders.
In my experience they can only trade on the floor, and have a very hard time adapting to screen trading.
Yet many screen traders, as soon as they hear the word "floor trader", they think he must know everything and where the market will go
Which is not true.
I have a friend who is an ex floor trader from Sydney futures exchange of 9 years, and he tells me he never had a clue where the market was going to go.
He just learned to read peoples faces and behaviour in the pit like poker.
Subsequently he no longer trades anything except buying a few stocks longer term, and he most definitely does not play poker
Also another thing, broker/dealers.
Does anyone even know what they actually are?
Because you realize the registration as a broker/dealer, is an announcement of a possible conflict of interest from the broker to its customers?
Because a broker/dealer is someone who clears customers trades for a commission, but also trades his own account.
Which could mean that he uses all the customer order data to profit for his own account.
And he is announcing this could be possible simply by registering as a broker/dealer.
He is telling you by law
Anyway enough talking I will read some more.