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Psychology and Money Management

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Millionaire in 10 weeks & Conversation with broker

  #297 (permalink)

Reno, Nevada
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ZN, ZB, CL
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Posts: 233 since May 2011
Thanks: 54 given, 388 received

Willson View Post
I am disappointed and surprised at the venom and dismissal attitude expressed in so many posts. I thought the members were largely analytical people with respect for analyses of factual information. I was wrong. Most complaints just wanted to disparage the entire concept out of pocket. Seldom or never did I see a scientific analysis of the weakness arears of Merlins system/concept. Is the assessment of risk analysis in error? is the choice of a trading system inadequate? If so why and does it change the results and by how much. Do you have suggestions for improving the trading system? If it even matters. Is the selection of Russell a bad choice? What is a better choice? To me, Merlins system will work. It always has. But the reliability and time scale, profitability and other factors and unforeseen risks are not proven or quantified. So why so much "hate" over the need for optimization and learning ???

Science is research and evidence. That's it. If the evidence doesn't support the hypothesis, then you can either tweak the system (optimization) or start over. Merlin's system is a bunch of moving averages reconfigured into pretty pictures. You can square them, calculate exponential values or do some tensor calculus. It's still a moving average. Moving averages filter out noise. They smooth out the data. They are NOT predictive. Double tops and double bottoms are ex post facto observations.

The reason why people get bent out of shape with threads like this is because everyone has been there, done that. If all it took was moving averages to trade the ES, everyone would be rich and there would be no need for this website. On top of that, the OP is not a student of the markets or a strategy developer. He's hell bent on presenting a not-so-original idea that he can't even code himself. This is analogous to a cancer researcher who wants to direct his/her lab experiments from an armchair in front of a TV. It's ridiculous.

The bottom line is that the idea is not new.

The OP's response to this post by TWDsje says everything we need to know about him:

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Mike's website provides an opportunity for collaboration and an exchange of ideas. That's how we all benefit. It's been a tremendous help to me, particularly picking up pieces of code and ideas that perhaps I would have never thought of. Let's not get stuck in the mud.

Last edited by phantomtrader; August 5th, 2019 at 07:23 AM.
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