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Psychology and Money Management

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Millionaire in 10 weeks & Conversation with broker

  #262 (permalink)

Market Wizard
Birmingham UK
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: TST/Rithmic
Favorite Futures: YM/Gold
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MerlinWorld View Post
Conclusion, Tim was right and we will need to lock in our contracts to get there and as to HOW LONG we will get there, only a good trading system will let us do it and only the backtesting will confirm this. Right now, I have no clue how long it will take because I don't have Tim's system.

Btw, what are you saying? That any strategy and backtesting won't work, and everything is doomed to fail?

Several here have tried to highlight the massive difference between theoretical backtests, which can show promising (even spectacular) returns, and actual forward testing/live experience, even on sound systems. In addition we have also highlighted the many similar attempts to use just this sort of indicator setup with special bars, where the results will usually be more misleading than average.

You should also take note to consider the fact that (as far as you have indicated) Tim only offered backtest results for his system - without significant forward testing at minimum and live running evidence in multiple market conditions he may not have had as profitable a system as you might assume either.

I am also quite sure that regardless of the fixed price/channel size advantages your approach claims as a benefit, it will in fact make it more prone to failure in changing market conditions and no less dependant on price (doesn't have to be lagging to be a price derivative that adds no extra information).

Whatever results you find it will eventually come down to a psychology test as well, no matter how automated anything is, getting large numbers of contacts filled is not a problem to be considered for a long time.

I am not a doomster, and you are of course free to completely prove me wrong, in which case I will take my hat off to you (I don't eat hats, and I don't expect to take it off, but just in case my humble pie is always ready.)

Just lower your expectations, and stay with the calmer attitude, dream as much as you need to but don't base any life plans or needs on this just yet awhile.

Have a good weekend.

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