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Psychology and Money Management

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Millionaire in 10 weeks & Conversation with broker

  #171 (permalink)

Jacksonville, FL
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
Posts: 9 since Aug 2018
Thanks: 39 given, 21 received

Aspberger's, Trolling, or Clueless?

Pardon me, Big Mike, and to the Community at large, as I balance out the many genuinely good-hearted responses here to the OP. I hope my tone will not violate our terms and conditions. If it does, please consider myself already duly warned (but do what you must and I'll accept it on its face).

There were several amazing aspects about Jeopardy!'s James Holzhauer's $2 million plus winning streak this year which kept me glued to the screen, first in amusement, but soon in awe, and then later in thoughtful consideration as I struggled to understand it. It was that unusual. I wasn't alone, either.

Such demonstrations are rare and it was being played out in public. Many eventually picked up on it, including all major media outlets, primarily for its novelty and also because this might be the last year with Alex Trebek, who'd recently been diagnosed with late stage Pancreatic Cancer yet soldiered on to the end of taping. Many of us thought, "What a way to end the show!" (while silently and vocally wishing for Mr. Trebek to one day be in that 5% who survive). He is truly a gentleman. I am not.

James Holzhauer came out of nowhere but we quickly learned he was different from most players. Key among those factors were his in-depth knowledge in correct answers to all play challenges issued (not merely clever snarky responses to anyone who offers advice or asks questions); his money management specifically designed to compliment his near flawless play (as opposed to not having any "play" yet and ignoring outright even the most fundamental Gambler's Fallacy); like Trebek, Holzhauer came to play each and every day with focus, commitment, and sheer will (as opposed to not caring if it takes 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, or 5 years, whatever); Holzhauer stood publicly in front of The World and played his game with real money (unlike sim "wins"); while he displayed a confidence that was based on earned merit, backed by demonstrable earnings day after day (as opposed to starting a silly screed defensively because "whaa, whaa don't hurt me" from some other blog); and his strategy which was so novel after 30+ years of the show--to START with the highest paying answers and work down from there (as opposed to thinking himself so novel that even the fictional Lieutenant Sulu back in the 1960's had explained this "new" approach, "It's like having a penny and doubling it every day; in a month you'll be a millionaire"). What a blunt contrast between a true innovator and a poser.

But that's not even the most interesting part to me. The most interesting part to me--predictably to us old timers--was how Holzhauer's streak eventually came to an end. One day, his last on the show, the system--i.e. the structure of the game, the players he competed with, and pure randomness--wiped him out. On that last day, as champion he got to choose first and as usual picked a $1000 (highest paying) answer, which turned out to be that round's Daily Double. He got paid for it, but only the base amount of $1000, rather than hitting that square randomly much later in the round and doubling up as he usually did, which typically stretched his lead in the first 15 minutes. Then in Double Jeopardy, his worthy opponent randomly got both of the remaining Daily Doubles. And while his opponent was nowhere nearly as aggressive a bettor as Holzhauer, it was enough to put him slightly in the lead for Final Jeopardy. Inasmuch as both players were flawless (neither missed an answer the entire game, and the other player was in a distant third), Holzhauer's streak was over. Despite not having missed a single answer, the randomness (and truly wicked yet still random first pick) nullified all his advantages. After so many brilliant games, the universe lined up another way.

As it will for all of us someday, if not in trading, then certainly in Life.

Thus, after so many posts I ask if it's a case of Asperger's, Trolling, or Willful Ignorance? You be the judge. As for me, there's no more time to waste here. As for the OP, I don't care what its (his/her?) reply is, it doesn't matter a wit. Like the SEAL Command Master Chief in the movie "G.I. Jane" so succinctly dismisses: When I want your opinion, I'll give it to you.

My only regret is that, since the OP will only ever play sim, I won't ever have the pleasure of taking his $25 from him.

Or was it $50 in sim by now? So hard to keep track with such a stellar performance. Better yet, I claim I took his $50 in sim funds. Yeah, that's it--his trading platform lied to him. If he can make up shit, the rest of us can, too.

So yeah, Wannabe, you're dismissed. Or I am. Either way, no more wasting my time... so I win.

Either way.


BTW... loved the photo of the private plane's wing tip over New York's Empire State Building. Atlas didn't shrug there!

Last edited by Mailmon; July 31st, 2019 at 04:33 PM.
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