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Psychology and Money Management

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Millionaire in 10 weeks & Conversation with broker

  #95 (permalink)

Posts: 128 since Jan 2013

phantomtrader View Post
Hi - Do you run your tests in market replay or is it the strategy backtest engine on TS? I ask because all these backtesting engines regardless the platform, can be highly inaccurate, particularly if you're using different types of bars (I think you're using Kase bars?)
I used to have TS but their commissions are too high for scalpers. But EL is an excellent development tool. Much easier and more flexible than Ninja.
Anyway, it looks like your strategy is somewhat similar to Martingale which continues to double up. I'm just wondering if you've considered that each trade is independent of previous trades, regardless how the strategy is programmed. If you have unlimited cash to cover drawdowns and limitless time, then the strategy can be successful. But it's unrealistic to think that in a 10 week period you can rely on a setup like that to be successful. If you're working with programmers, I would suggest that you (and they) consider the optional stopping theorem. It's very relevant to doubling strategies.

In any case, good luck with your strat. Remember, even if something doesn't work or has to be tweaked, it's important to know what DOESN'T work as well as what does work. It's the first lesson you learn as a researcher.


I don't run test right now because this doubling technique is just that, a Money Management Technique and without a Trading System, it goes nowhere.

That's why I need help of programmers to convert this EasyLanguage code in to C# and then once we have this indicator on our screens, we will move to the Trading System part.

So yeah, we are not there yet but it's coming along.

Martingale is dangerous because it has no safety nets. It's constant doubling over and over again and we all know where this leads. You have to stop at one point and either bring back all the $ into the first columns of $25 or do like on my diagram here, orange backups at every level you go so that you have at least one safety net per level in case you can't double 3 times in a row.

We'll see

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Here's a screenshot of the ES chart for today and yesterday. I haven't found the best settings for the ES because the RTY pays better but if that chart is trending, my indicator should find that trend and show you the best dips to enter.

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Last edited by MerlinWorld; July 30th, 2019 at 05:35 PM.