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real world stops and risk reward ratio.


Riverside CA
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: MGC
Salao's Avatar
Posts: 373 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 2,170 given, 1,075 received

Yo @snax ! The weekend is good thanks! Hope all is well over there in Chicago!

My stops have been really wide lately. They have been dictated by the chart so I think they have been reasonable enough. My win rate over the past month has been over 60%, but I have traded for a loss. My losers are bigger than my winners. As you said, there are a lot of variables involved here but generally there has just not been enough swing left after I enter to produce favorable math. And when there is enough swing, I find reasons to flatten. Hence, the losses.

This is why I have begun experimenting with 8 tick stops. I'm basically tightening up risk to to compensate for the idiosyncrasies embedded in my trading. I can hold a trade for 4 points with no problem, 8 points is a little harrowing, and in rare occasions I'm able to hold for 10+ points...this is what I've based my stop on during market replay this weekend. I've been trading 2 contracts and taking 1 off at 1R and 1 off at 2R. If both my targets are tagged I get 6 points. In the binary world of 'profit target hit' vs. 'getting stopped out' I need to be right 40% of the time and I will be ~BE. Which seems OK. There might be a live test on Monday...

Last edited by Salao; June 8th, 2019 at 05:59 PM. Reason: math is hard and other stuff is hard when multi-tasking
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