I Can't Make a Friend of the Trend | Psychology and Money Management


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I Can't Make a Friend of the Trend

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Market Wizard
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Leon of Pizza View Post
Anyways, the buy / sell distribution looks reasonably placed in relation to what I think the mean is, imo, but performance deteriorates as the trend accelerates. So it was inconclusive. Also, the character of the problem changes from one end to the other and that's confounding. If anything, I would say that I was too inflexible with the channel. In hindsight, its very usable if I accept the possibility of the upside break out. It's just an ascending bull flag, but I have difficulty accepting that possibility in advance, because I think ascending bull flags are outliers.

Exactly. The most destructive times occur in fractal shifts (moving up a degree in EW terms) where a trend becomes a strong trend becomes a very strong trend becomes an extremely strong trend. These are always the most difficult to foresee unless we have a good HTF scenario going beyond left hand side history and a decent view of buy/sell pressure, and we accept that wave 3's/C's shouldn't be blindly faded and that this change is also more likely to be accompanied by rising/falling/truncated corrections which are often confused with ending diagonal formations, until the bomb goes off.

I am personally struggling with the confidence to hold exactly these sort of trades, I can put them on at great ultra low risk entries, see them move in favour and yet still find it easier to disbelieve the magic of letting the market force work. Reading the market like a hawk but trading it like a sparrow is numero uno on my modes to change list.

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