I Can't Make a Friend of the Trend | Psychology and Money Management


futures.io - futures trading strategies, market news, trading charts and platforms


Psychology and Money Management


This forum is where successful traders spend most of their time and where struggling traders never visit. The psychology and money management forum is where you learn to become a profitable day trader




 

I Can't Make a Friend of the Trend

  #5 (permalink)

St. Louis
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: thinkorswim, NT8
Favorite Futures: equity and fx futures and options
 
Leon of Pizza's Avatar
 
Posts: 133 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 92 given, 168 received


ratfink View Post
...in a trend...the reversion to mean just 'looks' more likely.

Agreed, and its also statistically probable. So I did some thinking on this and made an analysis. Before I started, I was certain that the buy / sell distributions would look bad, but I don't think that after looking at it.

I used this HTF bull channel for the last 6 days. My perception of mean prices comes from channels. In a bull, I see mean price rising (its a crude approximation). Magnetic curves are short term means.

Anyways, the buy / sell distribution looks reasonably placed in relation to what I think the mean is, imo, but performance deteriorates as the trend accelerates. So it was inconclusive. Also, the character of the problem changes from one end to the other and that's confounding. If anything, I would say that I was too inflexible with the channel. In hindsight, its very usable if I accept the possibility of the upside break out. It's just an ascending bull flag, but I have difficulty accepting that possibility in advance, because I think ascending bull flags are outliers. So, by the time day 6 comes, I'm just paralyzed and useless on the buy side and that's the best intra-day buying environment on the chart.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Attached Thumbnails
I Can't Make a Friend of the Trend-rty-190215-bias-analysis-chan-wide.png  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Leon of Pizza for this post: