I Can't Make a Friend of the Trend | Psychology and Money Management

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I Can't Make a Friend of the Trend

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St. Louis
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...in a trend...the reversion to mean just 'looks' more likely.

Agreed, and its also statistically probable. So I did some thinking on this and made an analysis. Before I started, I was certain that the buy / sell distributions would look bad, but I don't think that after looking at it.

I used this HTF bull channel for the last 6 days. My perception of mean prices comes from channels. In a bull, I see mean price rising (its a crude approximation). Magnetic curves are short term means.

Anyways, the buy / sell distribution looks reasonably placed in relation to what I think the mean is, imo, but performance deteriorates as the trend accelerates. So it was inconclusive. Also, the character of the problem changes from one end to the other and that's confounding. If anything, I would say that I was too inflexible with the channel. In hindsight, its very usable if I accept the possibility of the upside break out. It's just an ascending bull flag, but I have difficulty accepting that possibility in advance, because I think ascending bull flags are outliers. So, by the time day 6 comes, I'm just paralyzed and useless on the buy side and that's the best intra-day buying environment on the chart.

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