Would you run this strategy? 10 year DAX backtest results attached.What do you think? | Traders Hideout


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Would you run this strategy? 10 year DAX backtest results attached.What do you think?

  #35 (permalink)

Trieste Italy
 
 
Posts: 146 since Feb 2018
Thanks: 128 given, 18 received


rlstreet View Post
Let me give an example of a hypothetical mini theory: my system is exploiting the morning in flow of relative dumb money, which has the tendency to create more momentum than during later on day.

Ok it is a theory, so need to research: 1 is there more momentum in the morning than during the rest of the session, are there special times,days, how to measure momentum 2 dumb money what is it, can I find more info on the topic morning opening.

In this way you create a clear picture of your problem space,odds, so after this work you can find rules, levels, to exploit this inefficiency. And maybe most important you create a deeper understanding of the markets.

At this moment you have a set of rules and no idea what you are exploiting. And you mined the rules so it gave the idea you have caught a pattern that could persist in the future.

Don't get me wrong, maybe you on to something, i don't know. Luckely there are many ways to find out before allocating real money to it: simulation, robustness tests.


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I understand what do you mean. My rules are similar to a classic TPO use (it establish the BIAS if it open above, below or inside the previous value area) and they work only in proximity of the Value area high and low... as you said mine are actually only RULES built around those levels using some market profile theory under a different point of view. You're right saying that I don't know what's behind this behaviour and your suggestion make me think if it could be useful to do more research about this accordingly to the specific entry/exits of my system. I will definitely do some research in august when I'll have some free time and see if I come upwith something as this is something new for me.

Anyway my purpose (not only for this strategy in particular but for all) is to find rules and theories (in my case : theories = set of working rules) that works and I want to look ONLY AT THE CHART and NOTHING ELSE. I don't want to depend from news, datas, fundamentals and whatavere... I only want (at the moment, no ones know what will bring our attention in the future) to take care of pure price action and candles pattern.
I want to specify that before come to some decent results with my backtest like in this system I made lots lots of other strategies even with good backtest that revealed to be not so good at the end... I made this post beacuse I finally found something that convince me enough to discuss and take critics from you experts.

Regards,

David

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