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A Time Traveler and a Trade

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Bridgeport, Ct
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
Broker/Data: IB/Sierra
Favorite Futures: Oil, Nat Gas, ES
TheShrike's Avatar
Posts: 475 since Jun 2012
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tpredictor View Post
The optimal low risk action is very trivial: before the time traveler leaves, you ask for some form of proof. You provide this proof to multiple backers who insure your bet.
The expectancy doesn't change: what changes is your risk of ruin probability.

Unfortunately, that isn't one of the choices and is an invalid answer in this situation. You are only allowed to to either scratch the trade, or take the risk. Using counterfactual thinking and coming up with ways to lay off the risk defeats the purpose of the exercise don't you think?

So would you scratch it, or keep it on?

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