How much should I be making on one contract per day? | Traders Hideout


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How much should I be making on one contract per day?

  #4 (permalink)

North Carolina
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Favorite Futures: es
 
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011

If you mean "average profit per contract" then $300 is not realistic for active day traders. A better way is to think about it in ticks or points. For the ES, if you can make more then 1 tick after costs then that is better then less then 1 tick because it probably means your strategy/trading is more likely to do well in the live. But, as iantg alluded, the amount you risk per trade and number of trades is important.

But, if you are a very active trader, say 6 or more trades per day, then around $16.50 per contract (1 tick plus costs) would be a great target. If you are only taking a few trades per day then 1 point to 1.5 points average profit per contract would be a top end estimate for the ES. This would be $50-$75.

But, this doesn't tell the whole story because risk and winning percentage is important too. A lot of trading systems might have a higher profit per trade but take a lot more risk then a discretionary trader and/or have asymmetrical skewed risk-- which can work if done properly.

As such, this is all very hypothetical and generalized. Keep in mind too, that we're assuming under either highly realistic simulation with limit order realism on fills or live. If you are not operating in those conditions, you need much higher profits to have confidence. Also, in live your results can be worse and you can still be profitable.

Profit factor is important too. Profit factor is gross profit divide by gross loss. Normally, as you seek to increase profit factor your number of trades will go down and your net profit. If you take more trades, you might make more but the trades you take will be mediocre meaning there is a greater shortfall risk.

Basically, if you're making money in live then that's basically good.

But I'd consider the following

Stellar, Any stats in this range are great, if all stats are in this range then it is stellar.
Gross Profit factor: >= 2.0
Winning Percentage: >= 65%
Avg # Trades Per Day: >=4
Net Profit Per Trade/Contract: >= 1 tick ($12.50)
Additional: Symmetrical or nearly symmetrical, avg win > avg loss, largest winning day > largest losing day, avg win day > avg losing day,

Average, more realistic, still likely profitable but confidence is lower
Net Profit Factor: >=1.2
Winning Percentage: >=55%
Avg # Trades Per Day: >=4
Net Profit Per Trade/Contract: >= 1 tick ($12.50)

If any of the stats are in the following range, you might or might not be profitable. But any stats in this range are questionable. If your stats are in this range, it might indicate that you are struggling or might have problems.

Net Profit Factor: >=1 <1.2
Winning %: <=50
Net Profit Per Trade/Contract:< 1 tick
Risk: Skewed to risk more then reward


Last edited by tpredictor; March 20th, 2018 at 07:39 PM.
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