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People actually fall for this

  #9 (permalink)

Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus
Posts: 16 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 8 given, 11 received

How is this any different than "order flow" trading? Just because you see large or hi-vol trades hitting the bid or offer, it tells you nothing about the future direction. Because you never know how much is left behind to execute... Is it a institutional spread trade? Is it.... the alternative scenarios are numerous.

I see it everyday in /ZB. I think it was just Thursday, NYC AM session... cum volume down, bid getting hit starting at 143.03. 143.00 bids. +700 block trade hits the 43 bid. Market didn't budge. That was more than what was on the book, 3 deep. Nothing.

Now, shouldn't that "order flow" setup "predict" a 3-6 tick drop? My experience is it's still basically a coin flip with "order flow" no matter the "flow."

btw... I traded the above scenario anticipating the Market going .00 bid, selling 3s and 4s. Partial exit on .01 and as soon the Market absorbed the block with no follow through I scratched the remainder.

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