Winning and losing streak analysis | Traders Hideout


futures.io - futures trading strategies, market news, trading charts and platforms


Traders Hideout


Discuss day trading practices and futures trading strategies on this forum for all markets. This forum is also for discussing and reviews for brokers, data feeds, and commercial or third party add-ons




 

Winning and losing streak analysis

  #5 (permalink)

Legendary Market Wizard
Winnipeg, MB Canada
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Oanda
Favorite Futures: EURUSD (spot forex)
 
MWG86's Avatar
 
Posts: 547 since Jul 2015
Thanks: 1,139 given, 852 received


Ozquant View Post
Max and Min consec isnt of much use . A probability matrix or curve is what you really require . I have an excel formula that produces exactly that . Here is a table i found on the net thats at least a guide . The excel file i have you can input trade sample with win rate

Thanks @Ozquant for the matrix. Maybe I should've clarified the reason behind the question in my initial post. I'm a discretionary trader taking entries based off of a combination of price action and fundamental analysis. I've been struggling trading through drawdowns so was looking to do a study of what can be expected in terms of how many consecutive losses are statistically possible based on win percentage. With this in mind, I'm curious as to why you say that max and min consec isn't of much use?



BTW, to answer my own question above, I ran a 5,000 iteration Monte Carlo analysis on a randomly generated set of 5,000 trades based on win percentage and I can confirm that the figures in the table on my original post are accurate. I also calculated what can be expected on a 10th and 25th percentile basis and posted the results in my journal (wanted to keep it in the Elite section to support the site).

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to MWG86 for this post: