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The question of an edge

  #12 (permalink)

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Grantx View Post
Thats what I am saying, the sum total of those things=your edge so how do you describe it or encapsulate it all into a single mathematical statistic?

As far as I am concerned, a positive expectancy sounds just like the gamblers fallacy where you flip 3 heads in a row and you then have this expectation that the 4th will be the same. Expectancy only represents what you have done to date and has no bearing on future results. The same with your actual strategy, what you rely on today could be quite different in a years time. The only constants that you can safely rely on are the things in that list (and a few other things).

If you think "positive expectancy" is the same as gambler's fallacy, I am confident you do not understand expectancy and how it can be of benefit.

Based on 25+ years of doing this, I can tell you I put a whole lot more faith in being successful by trading positive expectancy strategies than by journaling my thoughts...

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