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The question of an edge

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Legendary Guesser
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TheShrike View Post
Those things you listed are prerequisite to success and may help you adjust yourself to attaining an edge. By themselves they do not equal one.

Thats what I am saying, the sum total of those things=your edge so how do you describe it or encapsulate it all into a single mathematical statistic?

As far as I am concerned, a positive expectancy sounds just like the gamblers fallacy where you flip 3 heads in a row and you then have this expectation that the 4th will be the same. Expectancy only represents what you have done to date and has no bearing on future results. The same with your actual strategy, what you rely on today could be quite different in a years time. The only constants that you can safely rely on are the things in that list (and a few other things).

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