The question of an edge | Traders Hideout - futures trading strategies, market news, trading charts and platforms

Traders Hideout

Discuss day trading practices and futures trading strategies on this forum for all markets. This forum is also for discussing and reviews for brokers, data feeds, and commercial or third party add-ons


The question of an edge

  #6 (permalink)

Legendary Guesser
Reading UK
Trading Experience: None
Platform: Prorealtime
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: My 3 boys
Grantx's Avatar
Posts: 1,584 since Oct 2016
Thanks: 2,185 given, 4,096 received

kevinkdog View Post
Yes, it is called expectancy.

If you don't have positive expectancy, many of the other things on your list (iron clad discipline, superior money management, thousands of hours of screen time, journaling, etc) become irrelevant.

But, if you do have a positive expectancy edge, many of those items you listed DO become important. Example: with poor money management, you can easily get wiped out even with a positive expectancy system.

It all starts with positive expectancy - if you lack that, you will eventually be screwed.

Think of it like building a castle. You need a solid foundation (Positive expectancy) before building the castle (other items in your list). Because as Jimi Hendrix said "castles made of sand, fall in the sea, eventually."

Positive expectancy is the sum of the parts and fluctuates along in direct response to the input. Its a representation of how disciplined you are with all the points listed (and others).

Firstly, to ask the question 'what do you think of this or that strategy' is a silly thing to ask in the first place. But equally baffling is to ask whats your edge or do you have a positive expectancy? Edge and expectancy is only relevant right now, because these metrics can change. You cant rely on your expectancy for anything. Or can you? What do you do with it?

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Grantx for this post: