Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future | Trading Reviews and Vendors


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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future

  #272 (permalink)

East Bend
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation, MetaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus/Kinetick
Favorite Futures: Futures, Oil, Gold, NQ
 
Posts: 49 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 2 given, 64 received


forgiven View Post
in the morning RTH around 10 a.m. est and 10:30 a.m. est are time cycles where the market turns 60% of the time. go ahead and send me 3000 grad if you want to.

Thanks, Forgiven. After speaking with Mike about comments like this - I've been asked to remain positive, and constructive...and add value to the community's members wherever possible. To avoid being cynical and toxic....building, and uplifting instead. In the spirit of Mike's request, I thank you for your comment.

I am constrained (willingly having accepted those constraints) to posts which are not self-promoting. As such, keep in mind the following:

"in the morning RTH around 10 a.m. est and 10:30 a.m. est are time cycles where the market turns 60% of the time."

This statement leaves some questions - ie, what are the entry and exit criteria? Are you suggesting people enter at candle close on a 1 minute CL chart for example at 10am? What kind of stop? Target? The ATR of CL this morning (one of the more popular futures markets) is around 15 ticks every minute. So when you say "around" 10am and "around" 10:30 - if you're off 2-3 bars (assuming you're close) that requires a stop of 30-45 ticks per contract...far too large of a risk for most newer traders with a small account.

It begs the question - are there methods at people's disposal that can distill the time down to a specific minute bar?

Todd Mitchell taught a course that outlined similar times, I paid $1,500 for it back in the day. It "taught" something similar, to the effect of "look for the market to reverse directions around 2:30, unless it doesn't - in which case it will continue trending until the close". Other traders I met confessed it was very ambiguous and had that "can never be wrong" element of marketing to it.

I fear statements like "turns around 10 o'clock and 10:30" potentially bear the same hallmarks of that statement - being broad enough that a turn within 10 minutes of that time could be claimed as a "success". It's hard to build a trading plan around something generalized like that, I find. I can't comment on the technique I teach in here, but if you'd like to ping me in a PM, I can suggest some techniques to you (very simple, very manual) that you can use to narrow down your window.

Much respect - Michael

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