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Being early in market at right level......but impatient to wait for other traders to

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San Diego California
 
 
Posts: 129 since Oct 2015
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Being early in market at right level......but impatient to wait for other traders to

Throughout my trading career, I have been more early than late in placing trades prior to trend change. My style of trading is similar to Paul Tudor Jones catching tops and bottoms. I have a tight stop, and although more losses, not as significant.

However sometimes when the market takes a long time balancing at the reversal levels, it whipsaws me too much in what I think. Mainly because knowing that the market as a whole is smarter than me, I usually tend to trust the tape more so than myself. So if the market doesnt show signs of strength at the key level, I start overthinking "what if I am wrong?"
Today was a perfect example.

I first copied the bottom range and pasted it to December high and noticed we got reaction there so I anticipated reversal and market moved pretty fast.
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I did try catching the bottom a few times on TF, and I was stopped out a couple times, no biggie. At the white line below, I had a limit buy order knowing this should be a key level on TF.
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First it pierced key level....then 5min reversal candle formation....then hunted for stops.....and recovery was pathetic..
Look at how weak the tape was......kept hunting stops. and didn't rally right away to test prior highs....just drifted along...with that in mind I started overthinking too much and asked myself why werent there buyers to come in strongly? I thought to myself, maybe the market wants to go lower....so next day I came in with a different theory on TF.
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I figured today we would break below the red flag support to fake out the dip buyers into white area support on the notion that gold/bonds, dollar, Nikkei and yen were showing pretty big movements....and then bounce strongly.....
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I noticed TF was having a hard time making a new high on short timeframe and that was the bearish clue and confirmation that my theory would play out. So I shorted near arrows...but every goddamn time I shorted, it kept holding. As it came closer to the 3:30ramp, I was wondering why in the earth TF is not going down.... of course I was almost deluding myself of seeing how the trend to upside was just building(notice MA starting to break out of chop and hold) because instead I was thinking I would see selling come in anytime now.... Then as price came back near highs for the eleventh time, I finally gave up and as it broke key resistance, it was time to join TF on the other side even though I did hesitate for a few minutes and got out way tooo early.
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So this is my problem....maybe its impatience or the belief that the markets can do anything so I get wishwashed out. I tend to be very early in levels with "smart money". However, when the market doesn't just react right away or drifts along like yesterday, I start overthinking too much of "Oh what if I am wrong" "Maybe the tape is clueing in that I am wrong"......but then today the tape was clearly bullish but I WAS totally LYING to myself. What do I need to work on?

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