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The sharing/not sharing dilemma

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Interesting, but not a new...


question. Quite complicated, I believe, and on many different levels. If anyone wants opinion on the various segments of the business, algo, HFT, hedge fund, floor etc. I'd be happy to expand my points to include those.

But to keep the focus on what I'd view as the typical participant here or maybe better what the typical participant here claims, is perhaps the best place to start?

Of course a fio member should share everything, it is the purpose of the forum. EVERYONE that comes here does so to gain information of some type about something. Short of your tax i.d. there isn't really anything you could share here that would hurt you.

In fairness I did not start here with this view because when I came here I was relatively new to screen based futures trading. A pro for sure, but not a pro at this segment...and I'm still not close to objective.

Here is the thing: Technical analysis, that is to say "indicators" is not a panacea. In fact I would say that the use of lines, dots, colors etc on charts actually hurts more people than it helps. Few people understand the "math", fewer understand the relationships at work. Past that every data point is HISTORICAL and any illusion to predictive powers leans toward being spurious. EXCEPT, for me, in two ways.

1) the stuff I look at on a chart is a visual road map it includes possible destinations and landmarks The view and the interpretation are unique to my hallucination.

2) indicators are representations of where we believe others might act.

So there is no authentic edge here, rather, this is what I see, this is what others see. How do I prepare to respond to the actions of others.

Fundamentals, market internals or news cycle aside.

The cognitive element "how we think and decide" is different for everyone. So we need to consider from the broadest view possible, those things that are going on around us. Then we trim down our view based hopefully based on data and hopefully in a valid way...one that is recognizable,(based on our map) and repeatable because the relationships are sometimes valid though not likely causal. That is saying that our map and our experience allows us to get lucky more often that not. But the important part is still coming.

All indicators are derived from very limited data points. Open, high, low, close and volume. Yes it is a generalization, but it is valid for this purpose. I will type all the time ...series or confluence of non-colinear technical indicators. That is to say, make your map using different data. One volatility measure, one closing price, one volume..the receipes get way too complicated and the meal is often never served.

With less than ten separate data points, we only get to make one decision. Buy or Sell! Even how much we make or lose is fairly vague. So I think people apply pretty indicators to price charts seeking clarity. This is mostly chasing the wind because price is very simply the close of the last bar plus or minus a random number. Yeah, you can throw stats on that and say up close begets up close, but that is true till its not and even then up one tick or up 20 ticks.

The thing we can add to luck in our hallucination is 1) our action decision buy/sell based on how we anticipate other participants might respond or 2) a rough estimation of how much we are willing make or lose.

You master short term directional speculation by being expert in judging the response of participants to o,h,l,c and volume based on their hallucination.

So, if I had the goose that laid golden eggs and I told you where I kept her rather than asking when do I leave the farm someone would ask, does she ever shit diamonds. There is no secret indi or setting, no magic combination. Winning is internal and a trait developed over time by being honest about what you do and how you respond.

Sharing should be done IMO, to collect recon on what you might be able to improve in your own approach. If you are scared that your sharing will reveal the secrets of the ages and hurt your ability to execute your three lot profitably, you are a loon....and probably not making any money.

Parade gonna start.

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