Drawdown Monte Carlo Increase over time PROBLEM | Traders Hideout


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Drawdown Monte Carlo Increase over time PROBLEM

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Trading Experience: Intermediate
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Loop View Post
Thank you for respond GFIs1 ,

... I only refer to drawdowns.

My point is valid even for a live system that brings you a profit.

If you take 500 trades from a live profit system and forecast future likely drawdowns from this they will, for a 200 trade period, have a high risk of being above 50%.
...
The only way to control this seems to be position sizing. Using Safe-f.

Loop

Again me

You note perfectly the zone of position sizing:
I voted in my upper post for position ZERO when uncertain area is in sight or upcoming.
My trigger is the Ichimoku cloud - of which you can easily read many things about - even in my journals.
SO - given the obvious - we CAN get out of a high risk momentum and let pass the ugly head of draw down
with just omitting the risks by taking a trade right there and then.

But that needs a certain preparation for the system at work.

Getting back to my second to last post: SOMEONE is always making the gain in the market...

THUS - we need to get into row ONE.
Good trades
GFIs1

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