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Target Trader (

  #20 (permalink)

New City, NY
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen Fire
Favorite Futures: CL, Currency Futures
Posts: 7 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

Skeptical About Pro Equity Trader

I was in a Pro Equity Trader webinar tonight and I have several comments. First, I was really rubbed the wrong way when John Gifford told us about his religious background and said that he had asked the good lord that if he was shown a way to make money that could be duplicated that he would show people how to do it as a way of giving back. Well I guess he is giving back at $6995 for his one on one mentorship but do not fret, you could pay a measly $4995 and get the mentoring online (both come with the life time indicator license). I guess his altruism comes from his incredibly low priced lifetime indicator license at a bargain basement price of only $2995. I don't know too much about religion but charging the newbie traders thousands of dollars doesn't seem like the Christian thing to me.

In the webinar, he said on ES he goes for 2 ticks and has a stop of 2 points (trades 3 contracts). I think he did mention that he has a 10 tick stop for TF. I did the math and assuming a $4.50 commission/fees, you would need to be correct at least 84% of the time to break even. He claims that he averages about 95% and in July 2010, he had over 97% correct. He showed what I think was a Tradestation report and I forget what his profit was, but his profit factor I believe was slightly over 4.5.

Even with my skeptism, here's what intrigues me. If the average of 95% is correct (which I'm very skeptical about in live trading with slippage and missed trades), then trading their methodology out of the box, your profit on 100 trades would be $4,275 (assumes a $4.50 commission) and in a month where the profitability drops to 90%, your profit would be $2,400 and if the system gets pounded down to 75% correct, your loss would be $3,225. Let's say you average somewhere between the 90% - 95% for 10 months and for 2 months the system drops down to 75%, your annual profit would be about $27,000 (per 3 contracts; this assumes 100 trades per month which seems reasonable from what I saw). Now all of this is a huge if (if it really is 95% positive and if it can be executed in live trading as effectively). I think doing something similar to what Trader Bee is doing with attempting to go for a runner on one of the contracts could enhance the profitability of the system. I am definitely no where near sold at this point but I am intrigued enough to look into it further.

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