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Anybody use Jake Bernstein DSI (www.trade-futures.com)?

  #9 (permalink)

Elite Member
Leeds UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: FXTrade
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers, CapitalSpreads, Oanda
Favorite Futures: GBP/USD
 
Tymbeline's Avatar
 
Posts: 429 since Apr 2015
Thanks: 1,044 given, 547 received

I've looked at it, and read a few of his books.

He seems to me to be a real master at confusing causation with historical correlation, and most of his "systems" seem to me to be backfitted; in other words the evidence he shows for them may be perfectly valid, with hindsight, but that doesn't actually demonstrate any predictive value at all.

To draw a horse-racing analogy: if you set out in search of correlations, and look through every Wednesday’s Epsom racing results over the last 10 years and find a “statistically significant” correlation between the number of the winner of the first race on the card with the number of the winner of the third race at Ascot on the following Friday afternoon, that may be perfectly true and valid and correct, but it implies no indication at all of “future edge” in betting that way. It will take two years for your readers/subscribers to realise this, by which point you'll have written another three books and generated even more publicity.

It seems to me that Mr. Bernstein perhaps hopes that a substantial proportion of his customers won't quite work this out.

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