Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future | Trading Reviews and Vendors


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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future

  #223 (permalink)

Switzerland
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Kinetick, CQG
Favorite Futures: CL, FDAX, Forex
 
Posts: 18 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 23 given, 26 received

Doesn't work

Attached is a chart emailed out by Michael of Back to the Future Trading last Wednesday, September 23, 2015. He states "looking for setups in TIME where the institutions are most likely to make a move, like this one in Crude, today".

I have marked the chart with thick green lines for winning trades and thick red lines for losing trades.

As you can see, if you count PowerZone (big dot) trades only, there are 3 winners and 6 losers (33% winners).

If you are more aggressive and count both PowerZone (big dot) and AMACD (small dot) trades, there are 6 winners and 10 losers (37% winners).

I have never known how Back to the Future Trading have determined their 65-70% certainty and can justify it but to me it is at best 50% (which is the probability you get when you draw random dots).

I'm an owner of a licensed copy of the software package and have been trying for several years to incorporate it in a trading system.

I even digitized all the signals and fed them into a statistical based machine-learning system in order to disprove the "null hypothesis". After spending hundreds of hours, I came to the conclusion that you CANNOT "Know with statistical certainty when a move was coming - to the minute - and in what direction" with this software.

For your information and to help you draw your own conclusions.

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