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Friendly vendor competition?

  #17 (permalink)

Elite Member
Monterey, CA
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: CL
Posts: 80 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 28 given, 97 received

shodson View Post
Isn't that what this and this are for?

Unfortunately no, not quite. . .

The key difference is the point I mentioned earlier, its the difference between gauging the results of just a few trades over a singular strategy, vs testing the performance of an entire portfolio. The fewer the strategies, instruments, markets and number of trades involved in a contest, the less accurate/valuable the results of the competition will be, as an accurate representation of skill/ability, imho.

If 10 users developed a single strategy completely at random, using no logic that they felt to be predictive or useful, and 10 other users spent a great deal of time on their single developed strategies and had great confidence in them, over a tiny number of trades there is a very significant chance a user from the former group would win the contest. . . due to sheer chance, randomness. However, vastly increase this number-of-trades, or time-in-market-of-all-trades-combined, and the chances of the best trader rising to the top increases significantly.

This is what put a slight damper on my excitement towards the battle of the bot competitions specifically. It seemed to me that a competition using such a small data pool is very likely to crown the *luckiest* trader over a short period of time, as opposed to the most skilled trader. . does this make sense?

This is not at all to diminish the importance of that competition, I think it was interesting and novel and useful, and brought some attention to systematic trading as a concept and practice. . . I was merely suggesting what would perhaps be a more comprehensive and exhaustive test of a systematic trader and their methods. I think if we went this route, and a few of us showed solid, consistent success over a reasonable period of time and significant number of trades, it could seriously change the way systematic trading is viewed, and could give others just starting down that path the confidence they need to continue.

Just a thought. . I'll begin the vendor search shortly here to see if I can find a few takers

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