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IS EUR/USD too risky to trade?

  #25 (permalink)

Boston, MA
Posts: 165 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 61 given, 117 received

London Trader View Post
Your point mirrors what other traders tell me, but if I read the market well then the market won't be hitting my stops (not counting trailing stops).

I prefer a 90% chance of taking 10 ticks (with stops), over a 10% chance of taking 100 ticks (with stops).

In this sense, stops are not part of the strategy. Am I wrong?

You are confusing "having a statistical edge" with "having certainty". Unfortunately, there is no such thing as "certainty" in the market. There is only "probability". Even if you accurately read the market direction, you can still be stopped out based on your poor entry point or your inability to position your stops properly. But keep this in mind - your read of the market direction was simply an inference based on a number of factors, none of which (even together) gave you absolute certainty.

Stops (whether hard stops or mental stops) are a part of your money management, and if you cannot manage your trades, you will lose, no matter how great you are in reading the market.

Your take on probability is severely lacking - when you say 90% chance of taking 10 ticks, what are you defining as the other 10%? "Not taking 10 ticks" can be any one of a huge number of things, like "10% chance of losing 20 ticks", "10% chance of losing 200 ticks", or even "10% of chance of losing 10000 ticks and going bankrupt". You can only define this with an actual strategy that has been tested. Same thing with the other probability you mentioned - 10% chance of taking 100 ticks. What is the other 90%? Losing 1 tick? Losing 10? As you can see, throwing around arbitrary statistical values is simply a waste of time, and does nothing for you. It's a mental exercise that leads nowhere.

Last edited by mangolassi; July 27th, 2015 at 11:31 PM.
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