(French) Mostafa Belkhayate’s Alembex method (martingale) | Trading Reviews and Vendors
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(French) Mostafa Belkhayate’s Alembex method (martingale)
October 14th, 2014, 11:25 PM
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Cachevary
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Russia,Khabarovsk
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Nicolas11
He asserts that the probability of
not
having 2 consecutive winners in a sequence of 12 trades is negligible, so the trader is “guaranteed” to finish the sequence with a gain of +1.
This is false.
First, the probability of not having 2 consecutive winners in a sequence of 12 trades is far from negligible. The probabilities shown in the videos are simply wrong (by the way, some are > 100%!). Actually,
according to my calculation
,
the probability of
having
2 consecutive winners in a sequence of 12 trades is 94%
(in coin toss situation).
Nicolas
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