(French) Mostafa Belkhayate’s Alembex method (martingale) | Trading Reviews and Vendors


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(French) Mostafa Belkhayate’s Alembex method (martingale)

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Nicolas11 View Post


He asserts that the probability of not having 2 consecutive winners in a sequence of 12 trades is negligible, so the trader is “guaranteed” to finish the sequence with a gain of +1.

This is false.

First, the probability of not having 2 consecutive winners in a sequence of 12 trades is far from negligible. The probabilities shown in the videos are simply wrong (by the way, some are > 100%!). Actually, according to my calculation, the probability of having 2 consecutive winners in a sequence of 12 trades is 94% (in coin toss situation).



Nicolas


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