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  #2009 (permalink)

Georgia, US
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josh's Avatar
Posts: 4,969 since Jan 2011
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For both entertainment and educational purposes, looking to discuss EURUSD.

So the rate cut on Nov 7 had zero long term effect on the currency. Inflation numbers earlier today lower than expected--at this point, it's all on the table before the ECB meeting Thursday. The currency is a little weaker today, but the CPI number caused barely a sneeze.

So, the question is whether a rate cut has been priced in today (in effect, hardly priced in at all). Another way of saying it: would a rate cut Thursday really be a surprise, causing a drop as it did on Nov 7? Or is it expected enough that a cut will cause a little panic selling, and then a rebound as before? And if no changes are made Thursday, will this be opportunity for another rally?

I considered getting short Euro after the run up to 1.39, but it seems quite resilient. Even with the easing, and potential for more, supported by the numbers, it seems reluctant to fall. Would love to hear thoughts from those who regularly trade this.

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