Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future | Trading Reviews and Vendors


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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future

  #51 (permalink)

Paris, France
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,067 received


bgtrader View Post
Hey,
From a different angle, Jason Goepfert over at sentimenTrader - Independent Sentiment Research for the Stock and Bond Markets,

I was a subscriber for 1 year. Jason is a great guy, very nice and founds really interesting facts and statistics. The problem is they have no predictive value. I've done extensive tests on his models, STEM, etc. and I found no predictive value. In fact the only time I found predictive value was when I accidently didn't account for the timestamp differences and I was looking at his models 30 minutes into the future. Then they had precitive value. So that tells me that price is involved in the models some how and they turn once price has confirmed. That means they lag and are not useful. I even wrote to him and told him my findings and asked him if he could provide me with an example of one of his data that had predictive value. He was not able to do so.

I spent hundreds of hours studying this stuff, downloading his excel files, importing into Ninjatrader, and backtesting every idea imagineable. I wanted to believe so bad that his information had predictive value.

I'm not knocking him or his service, if you want breadth data & statistics he is the best. I'm knocking breadth data & statistics because they do not have predictive value! If you think his site will tell you when the market will turn you will be disappointed.

Once I stopped using his service and just based all my trading decisions on price & volume, I started a 4 month winning streak.

Price & Volume tell you everything you need.

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