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What I did Right & Wrong. Went long @1141.75 with a stop and reversal @ 1040.50. Why? Felt it was a critical point and if 1040.50 did not hold the market would at least test 1137.25. So, I placed a limit order and got coffee. Did the same thing the other morning and was taken out without letting my winner run. If live I would not walked away and would have kept the StopLoss Buy Above the EMA and probably covered at the failed Failure @ 1133.00 (Wishful thinking, but it does fit my rules.) If I had traded with real money I would go to my favorite breakfast place @ 8 or 8:30 and come back at 10:30. No use in give too much back being greedy.
NT 7 is starting to look really good, still some coding bugs in the scaling of RealStats, otherwise stable.
This week was super productive. Collaboration with Zondor fruitful: Check out his posts on NT 7 Indicator coding. Ran NT 7 live data with Sim trading For winning sim day. My contention that the big move up was a squeeze seem right on. Instead of a Head& Shoulders a possible Double Top has Formed. Will be watching if 1128 holds as well as Day trendline that is almost coincident. Can wait for next week.
After reading Zondor's comment above I though about who is right? The answer: it does not matter. Just plan your trades. In this case I will be looking to make trades based on two possibilities: The market goes into a bear squeez and moves up or it breaks the uptrend and corrects some of the move from 666 to ~1145.
Either way it seems that something is going to take the market out of the tighter & tighter range of late. Plan trades based on either possibility then execute the one that fits what the market presents.
If you plan accordingly, even a first losing trade can be the entry point for a winning one and a whole lot of small losses are covered by a well executed and managed winner.
Identify the risk as a point on the chart, it could be anything that has worked before, a trendline an indicator, etc.
T&S watching, following the DOM and at how these will effect the chart.
Maintain focus and try to enter The Zone.
Making more trades with small losses will result to more winning ones.
Random is 50%, but a trader can be be right only 33% and still profit.
Got up early to see how the new workspace was visualizing the market, saw an opportunity for a short @1132.00. Then thunderstorms in SF? decided to exit with 2 ticks and not risk power failing. Woke up and saw that I could have made a good trade if I had held it.
DomBands, BSVLine & jtRealStats all retooled by Zondor are working great after we tweaked the GUI to allow greater user control of the variables, like the number of Bid&Ask level summed.
Yes, I went back to a tick chart, but it is 765 ticks, in attempt to distinguish big from small players based on total bar volume. If traded volume/minute picks up will increase tick size to approximate 5 min chart.
Worked with Zondor on interpreting what the retooled indicators were doing, he suggested a buy @1127.75, Based on BetterBuySellVolume (confirmed by BuySellLine) & DOM_Bands, plus a gut from reading the Time&Sales tape. I suggested a limit sell @ 1132.00, based on previous price action.
Good test, then got caught up with self-congrats and missed the screaming buy as the Market went past 1132 again. Decided not to chase, More evidence that the scariest setups, the ones that require the most risk, are sometimes the best. In this case the market never even came close to a stop out until past 1140.
Feel I am really close. Must work on Focus. Will visualize myself in The Zone, for a few minutes. Then, after a break, come back.
Today realized that I was indecisive in the afternoon session, because there were too much going on, on my charts. While I like BetterBuySellVolume, hVWAP, & LegHL (I could go on and on). All of these add a lot to a chart, by drawing lots of things. Things that must be kept straight. All I needed to know was that the trendline of the daily chart was breached for a few minutes this morning and the trend then continued up wards. That was a buy signal, at least for today.
Came to the conclusion that I am a price and volume trader for a reason, when doing that, am more likely to get into the right trade. Also need to watch the flow of the Time & Sales window at critical points. The concept of trading without a chart is understandable, I just can't do it. I use the chart to back decisions to enter and exit & watch the T&S window (Tape Reading) for conformation at important chart points. Doing it all the time is way too taxing.
What does a trader actually need? Price tick charts that approximate 5 minutes, it is the best time frame, but I still want the volume information displayed as to small and large trades. Simply put, bars with less volume are less significant. I want DOM_Bands as it give a recorded picture of supply and demand. Will decide later if BetterBuySellVolume will replace BSVLine. There is is a lot of information there that could be useful, but like today = TMI!
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