Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future | Trading Reviews and Vendors


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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future

  #45 (permalink)

SanJose+CA
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 14 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 13 given, 9 received


Peter2150 View Post
Why to the predictive type foks always have "inversions" why not just call it a "this didn't work today" thingy.

Kind of like it works when it works, but some days it doesn't. Am I missing something

I see inversions differently and don't think we should throw out a method because they occur. When I see inversions I don't see it as an issue. But they point to a more complex system.

After studying market cycles for a while in effort to see if there's any repeating patterns I believe that there are predictable and repeating patterns or cycles but they are complex. And this conclusion didn't come about easily since it has so many ramifications and goes against my scientific and engineering based training. Once I did come around now I see the market and other things in nature differently. What look like pure randomness is more like chaos that has a more predictable underline structure.

Inversions in the market cycle is one of the effects that hide the cycle pattern. One place that inversions appears is in Welles Willder's "The Delta Phenomenon or The Hidden Order of all Markets". A great starting point for studying market cycles. The more you dig into market cycles the deeper the rabbit hole goes, far beyond Wilder's work. My trading partner has a trading system that uses predictive methods and they do work. With out seeing this first hand I wouldn't have believed it.

As stated before I do believe it's possible to predict when these inversion will happen. Also you don't need to predict when the inversion will happen if you combine it with other TA signals. So when a system works a lot and then doesn't due to a inversion don't despair and say it's no good. The indicator isn't accounting for these natural repeatable inversions that need to be accounted for separately.

John

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