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  #1004 (permalink)

La Jolla, CA
Trading Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker/Data: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Favorite Futures: CL, NG
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Big Mike View Post

What might it do next?

A great deal of support at the 3025-50 area. If we come down and find support, it seems extremely likely we will bounce a bit and come back up into this consolidation trading range we've been in for almost 3 weeks (3000 to 3300).

However, if sellers really pick up momentum and we break 3000, I think it could cause an accelerated move down to 2700.

Based on the news (which I try to ignore as much as I can), I would say this "holding pattern" (trading range) is the most likely scenario for the time being.

Edit: Oops should be "HL or LL depending on context" on that first one, type-o.


I can definitely see a test of the 1.3027 area again now that we've failed on the move higher (we're pretty much there). 1.2975 would be a half way back area but the big picture is still a downward trend. If we can break the swing low, I could see a test of 1.2450 - 1.25 which is a low volume area. A rejection from this level would create a bullish divergence on the MACD and may get more buyers on board. Then again, if we get some EU defaults, lower prices are possible. This move up appeared to be a test run to see who is willing to get on board. Any bounce from here will also create a bullish divergence which could get more buyers involved. Very tricky situation but I'd lean towards a bearish bias until we see the 1.25 area hit which is obviously more of a big picture perspective.

The USD is showing some nice strength again today having broken out of it's small bearish channel. The obvious target there would be another test of the recent swing high which works into 6E's price action as well.

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EURUSD 6E Euro-6e-03-12-240-min-2_14_2012.jpg   EURUSD 6E Euro-2012-02-14-6e.jpg   EURUSD 6E Euro-2012-02-14-usd.jpg  
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